Where will the Shocks be on 1/20?

[ShockerKhan]

The MSU game at Hammondsville is a loss we can recover from if we play tough 'D' and it goes down to the wire.
Then these young Shox know they are equals to the better teams in the Valley and their confidence will continue to grow.
An embarassing loss like last year and doubt starts to creap into players minds.
As physical as this game will be it may come down to a free throw shooting contest...and then I like our chances.
3-2 is my call.:clap:

[vbird53]

Where are all the cheerleaders and the predictions of - at worst - a third place finish? We beat Tech remember? :)

I'm here. I still expect a top 3 finish. That hasn't changed for me.

[RoyalShock]

Here is an analysis of the overall/home/road records of the MVC regular season champs over the past five seasons.

HL - Home Losses
UHL - Unexpected Home Losses (to teams that weren't contenders)
RW - Road Wins
URW - Unexpected Road Wins (over contending teams)

Sseason  Team  Record  HL  UHL  RW  URW
---------------------------------------
2008-09  UNI    14-4    3   2    8   2
         CU     14-4    2   1    7   1
2007-08  DU     15-3    1   1    7   2
2006-07  SIU    15-3    0   0    6   2
2005-06  WSU    14-4    1   1    6   1
2004-05  SIU    15-3    0   0    6   1

So, at least a 14-4 record is required. While we like to say win 'em all at home and go 5-4 or better on the road, that only applied to SIU during their really long home win streak.

Clearly, most league champs lost at least one game at home they wouldn't expect to lose. Except for last season, that was the only home game the champ lost. They made up for it by winning at least as many road games against contenders. And therein lies the formula. Now, how does that affect WSU?

For the sake of this analysis, I'm anointing UNI, ILSU and MSU as contenders and that our goal is to win the regular season.

So far, we've protected the home court, but historically we should expect to lose at least one game to a non-contender. So I'm going to assume that happens at some point. We have missed one opportunity to offset that with the loss at ILSU. That means we have two more shots, one of them being tonight at MSU.

Bringing this back to the next five games we really need to see these results to continue expecting/hoping for a regular season title:

@ MSU (W)
CU (W)
@ INSU (W)
@ CU (W)
UNI (W/L)

A loss at home to UNI could be absorbed, but we would have to buck the trend of losing at home to a non-contender. More than one loss over this stretch and we can expect no better than 2nd. (Of course, hope always abounds because you just never know!)

[shockball]

Two years ago in the post game press conference in Omaha HCGM said "We will win here." I think it's this year. We are going to beat Creighton this year however many times we play them. 4-1 or 3-2.

[vbird53]

Here is an analysis of the overall/home/road records of the MVC regular season champs over the past five seasons.

HL - Home Losses
UHL - Unexpected Home Losses (to teams that weren't contenders)
RW - Road Wins
URW - Unexpected Road Wins (over contending teams)

Sseason  Team  Record  HL  UHL  RW  URW
---------------------------------------
2008-09  UNI    14-4    3   2    8   2
         CU     14-4    2   1    7   1
2007-08  DU     15-3    1   1    7   2
2006-07  SIU    15-3    0   0    6   2
2005-06  WSU    14-4    1   1    6   1
2004-05  SIU    15-3    0   0    6   1

So, at least a 14-4 record is required. While we like to say win 'em all at home and go 5-4 or better on the road, that only applied to SIU during their really long home win streak.

Clearly, most league champs lost at least one game at home they wouldn't expect to lose. Except for last season, that was the only home game the champ lost. They made up for it by winning at least as many road games against contenders. And therein lies the formula. Now, how does that affect WSU?

For the sake of this analysis, I'm anointing UNI, ILSU and MSU as contenders and that our goal is to win the regular season.

So far, we've protected the home court, but historically we should expect to lose at least one game to a non-contender. So I'm going to assume that happens at some point. We have missed one opportunity to offset that with the loss at ILSU. That means we have two more shots, one of them being tonight at MSU.

Bringing this back to the next five games we really need to see these results to continue expecting/hoping for a regular season title:

@ MSU (W)
CU (W)
@ INSU (W)
@ CU (W)
UNI (W/L)

A loss at home to UNI could be absorbed, but we would have to buck the trend of losing at home to a non-contender. More than one loss over this stretch and we can expect no better than 2nd. (Of course, hope always abounds because you just never know!)

To put this in perspective:

Win tonight to keep conference title hopes alive.

Loss tonight will make the margin for error razor thin for conference title hopes.

[ShockerFever]

I don't know how realistic it is for this team to win the Valley this year. It's definitely not expected, but I'd love for it to happen.

Didn't we start off 2-2 in our last Valley title year?

I think some of you are putting a bit too much emphasis on this one. I don't believe it's a "make or break game" in terms of Valley title implications.

You can lose in Normal, Springfield, Cedar Falls, Carbondale, and maybe even Omaha and still win the title if you protect the home court.

Would it be a helluva steal tonight if we won? HELL YES.

Is it a MUST WIN, MAKE IT OR BREAK IT game? No. Not at this time IMO.

[Calshockfan]

I remember last year being irritated with ShockerFever's posts. I now find myself wondering whether the irritation had more to do with the performance of the Shox. I believe his analysis is absolutely correct, except I believe that we must win at least one of those five games he listed. The MVC regular season champion will probably have four losses.

[RoyalShock]

You can lose in Normal, Springfield, Cedar Falls, Carbondale, and maybe even Omaha and still win the title if you protect the home court.

That must be the hope part speaking. Recent history does not agree with you.

In the last six years no MVC champ has lost more than three road games. And that was SIU who did it three times over a stretch of four years where they lost exactly one home conference game (the year we won). That is a freak occurrence that I don't see us being able to pull off this year. I hope I'm wrong, though.

[RoyalShock]

The MVC regular season champion will probably have four losses.

If UNI wins at SIU tonight, I think 15-3 for them is very doable.

[Shocker85]

I remember last year being irritated with ShockerFever's posts. I now find myself wondering whether the irritation had more to do with the performance of the Shox. I believe his analysis is absolutely correct, except I believe that we must win at least one of those five games he listed. The MVC regular season champion will probably have four losses.

Folks have a hard time handling 'Fever's take on things because he isn't afraid to speak his mind and tends to offer a reality check when folks get too giddy around here. A die-hard but objective fan, IMO.

As SF said, a MVC championship may be a stretch this season - it's a pretty huge leap from last years finish. Not impossible, but difficult. Northern Iowa isn't going to roll over and die. Teams loaded with senior players demonstrate that the experience and playing together for so long DOES make a difference. Look at NDSU's success last season.

Are each of the next 5 games winnable? Sure. Can we just book them now? No way. It may be more likely for the Shocks to win out in St. Louis than in the regular season. A 2nd or 3rd place regular season, neutral court, more experience, etc., could be just the ticket.

--'85.

[MikeShox]

I remember last year being irritated with ShockerFever's posts. I now find myself wondering whether the irritation had more to do with the performance of the Shox. I believe his analysis is absolutely correct, except I believe that we must win at least one of those five games he listed. The MVC regular season champion will probably have four losses.

Folks have a hard time handling 'Fever's take on things because he isn't afraid to speak his mind and tends to offer a reality check when folks get too giddy around here. A die-hard but objective fan, IMO.

As SF said, a MVC championship may be a stretch this season - it's a pretty huge leap from last years finish. Not impossible, but difficult. Northern Iowa isn't going to roll over and die. Teams loaded with senior players demonstrate that the experience and playing together for so long DOES make a difference. Look at NDSU's success last season.

Are each of the next 5 games winnable? Sure. Can we just book them now? No way. It may be more likely for the Shocks to win out in St. Louis than in the regular season. A 2nd or 3rd place regular season, neutral court, more experience, etc., could be just the ticket.

--'85.

I personally believe the Shockers best shot at the Dance is still winning in St. Louis. I see this as a year to grow, but I still see next year as the big year. My big hope is to have the team playing well enough come March to go in and win Arch Madness. I believe UNI will be very tough to beat for the regular season championship.

The team is progressing very well and I am as die hard a fan as there is on this board, but I'm not ready to go overboard quite yet.

[forevershockerfan]

My guess would be a 4-1 stretch but 3-2 would not be a "FSF shock treatment." All in all, if we can win 7-8 Valley games at home, and then split the road games at 4-4, we will be in decent shape for St. Louee. Wouldn't it be a dream to just outright win the Valley Tourney this Season? If not this year, let's get in the finals this Season at least, and then win it next year. Maybe next Season will indeed be our big year. However, with Clevin as our quarterback, who knows what could 'come out in the wash' this very Season? Could tonight could be a sample of things to come this Season? Things are still very much in the air. Mo. State was not supposed to be near this good this Season. Can the Shocks take them tonight? To go where we want to go, we have to take charge on the road, so let's begin tonight and hunt some bear!!!!!!!

[ShockerPrez]

Re-assessments anyone?

[shockball]

Two years ago in the post game press conference in Omaha HCGM said "We will win here." I think it's this year. We are going to beat Creighton this year however many times we play them. 4-1 or 3-2.

I'll stick with this.

[forevershockerfan]

N-E-V-E-R MUST WE RE-CONSIDER AFTER SUCH A ROAD WIN!!!!!!!???????!!!!!!! YIKES!!!!!!!