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**ShockerInKC** · December 18, 2008, 09:55 AM

Ok, everybody whose not a statistics freak please ignore the following (maybe the preceding, too)...

Take the top lineups (in terms of minutes played, I'd consider using lineups that average more than 5 minutes a game or so, then lump all of the remaining lineups in a lineup called 'other'). Plot them on an x-y chart with the following axis:
X axis for time (minutes per game)
y axis for points (average points per game)

Then plot each of the lineups as colored blocks, so lineup 1 has a block of points tall and minutes wide. Adjacent to lineup 1 plot lineup 2, and so on. What you'll see is a series of adjacent colored blocks of varying height and width. The total area defined by these blocks is the average points per game. The total width would be just the average minutes per game.

Then by reviewing the chart you'll be able to discern the lineups productivity and efficiency at the same time. The 'best' lineup is the tallest one that is also the widest (which is a judgment call). I think this is a volumetric analysis ( if you have to give it a name).

**rayc** · December 18, 2008, 10:37 AM

Sounds good to me ShockerInKC.

I would also like to see the same chart with respect to the opponents points to get a glimpse of the defensive side as well.

**im4wsu** · December 18, 2008, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by ShockerInKC

Ok, everybody whose not a statistics freak please ignore the following (maybe the preceding, too)...

Take the top lineups (in terms of minutes played, I'd consider using lineups that average more than 5 minutes a game only six combinations average even one minute/game or so, then lump all of the remaining lineups in a lineup called 'other'). Plot them on an x-y chart with the following axis:
X axis for time (minutes per game)
y axis for points (average points per game)

Then plot each of the lineups as colored blocks, so lineup 1 has a block of points tall and minutes wide. Adjacent to lineup 1 plot lineup 2, and so on. What you'll see is a series of adjacent colored blocks of varying height and width. The total area defined by these blocks is the average points per game. The total width would be just the average minutes per game.

Then by reviewing the chart you'll be able to discern the lineups productivity and efficiency at the same time. The 'best' lineup is the tallest one that is also the widest (which is a judgment call) Wouldn't the "best" be the tallest (most points) and narrowist (fewest minutes)?. I think this is a volumetric analysis ( if you have to give it a name).

I haven't graphed the information, but the calculations are shown below. I have used points divided by minutes to achieve the offensive and defensive efficiency. The "Net Overall" shows the offensive minus defensive, which is what I showed initially.

**1979Shocker** · December 18, 2008, 08:40 PM

Here is the Northern Arizona Prouty Ratings alongside the Wichita State ratings.

Code:

  Northern Arizona          Wichita State
         (3-6)                   (4-5)
Comagic         0.367   Hannah          0.384
Johnson         0.343   Murry           0.356
Jones           0.339   Clemente        0.344
Johannsen       0.331   Hawkins         0.325
Wilson          0.328   Stutz           0.316
Lee             0.307   Chamberlain     0.286
Lepley          0.297   Durley          0.280
Bishop          0.287   Kyles           0.251
Zaragoza        0.270   Hatch           0.235
Kuhn            0.223   Ellis           0.195
TEAM            0.351   TEAM            0.368

Team Winning %: 0.333   Team Winning %: 0.444

**1979Shocker** · December 20, 2008, 11:53 PM

Wichita State vs Northern Arizona Prouty Ratings

Code:

              NAU     All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah*      0.470   0.401
Clemente*    0.612   0.372
Murry        0.103   0.343
Hawkins*     0.355   0.336
Stutz        0.206   0.312
Griskenas    0.093   0.293
Durley*      0.333   0.292
Chamberlain  0.019   0.263
Kyles        0.000   0.252
Michael      0.000   0.228
Hatch        0.161   0.227
Ellis       -0.023   0.189
Britton      0.000   0.064
Steven       0.000   0.001
TEAM*        0.371   0.380 

Team Winning Percentage: 0.500

* Improved from previous game.

**1979Shocker** · December 21, 2008, 12:22 AM

After 10 games here are the top 5 leaders of the individual portions of the Prouty Ratings. (5 games minimum played)

Offensive Efficiency [ TP / FGA*2 + FTA ]

Code:

Hannah       0.561
Stutz        0.559
Chamberlain  0.542
Clemente     0.514
Hawkins      0.503

Total Offense [ (TP + A*2 - TO) / MIN ]

Code:

Hannah       0.674
Murry        0.479
Hawkins      0.390
Griskenas    0.389
Stutz        0.382

Possessions Gained [ (REB + S +BLK/2 - PF) / MIN ]

Code:

Clemente     0.311
Griskenas    0.236
Durley       0.148
Hawkins      0.116
Murry        0.111

Win Rating [ MIN / (Team MIN / 5) * Team Winning Pct

Code:

Clemente     0.358
Hawkins      0.334
Hannah       0.330
Murry        0.326
Durley       0.263

**im4wsu** · December 22, 2008, 02:55 PM

Updating the Plus/Minus ratings for the NAU game

**1979Shocker** · December 23, 2008, 12:40 AM

Wichita State vs North Dakota Prouty Ratings

Code:

             N Dak    All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah*      0.344   0.404
Clemente*    0.497   0.391
Hawkins*     0.430   0.351
Murry*       0.269   0.345
Stutz*       0.316   0.318
Durley*      0.407   0.307
Griskenas*   0.356   0.306
Chamberlain* 0.447   0.291
Kyles        0.215   0.246
Hatch*       0.122   0.230
Michael      0.000   0.228
Ellis        0.010   0.189
Britton      0.000   0.064
Steven       0.000   0.001
TEAM*        0.434   0.395

Team Winning Percentage: 0.545

* Improved from previous game.

**im4wsu** · December 23, 2008, 11:06 AM

The updated plus/minus ratings are shown below. I have put 1979Shocker's Prouty calculations beside the plus/minus scores for comparison.

**dregn** · December 23, 2008, 12:49 PM

It's strange how the prouty ranks Hatch at the bottom yet our lineups with the best +/- per 40 had Hatch in them.

**im4wsu** · December 23, 2008, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by dregn

It's strange how the prouty ranks Hatch at the bottom yet our lineups with the best +/- per 40 had Hatch in them.

IMHO, the Prouty ratings, or really any combination of the normal statistics, do not reflect the defensive contributions of individual players nor can they reflect the "team" defense that doesn't show up in statistics.

If a player blocks a shot and the ball goes out of bounds, the Prouty gives some credit; but if that team then inbounds for a layup, there is nothing in Prouty to account for that. What good was the block if the other team scores?

Even more disturbing is that the player who blocked the shot may actually be the one who allowed the layup to be scored.

As you can see, I think the plus/minus ratings are interesting. Unfortunately, it is difficult to really see much in the "combination" +/- ratings because the minutes played by the various combinations is so small. Through 11 games, WSU has used 97 different lineups. If each of the linups had played equal time, they would have played 4.5 minutes so far this season. To be really useful, there needs to be more data or fewer lineups.

Durley had been getting a bad rap for defense, but his +6.4 per 40 is above the team's +4.4 (I forgot to include the team's score in the table above).

**RoyalShock** · December 23, 2008, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by im4wsu

If a player blocks a shot and the ball goes out of bounds, the Prouty gives some credit; but if that team then inbounds for a layup, there is nothing in Prouty to account for that. What good was the block if the other team scores?

Even more disturbing is that the player who blocked the shot may actually be the one who allowed the layup to be scored.

In high school we only got credit for a blocked shot if it directly resulted in our team getting the ball. Maybe that was just our coach's preference for how the stats should be kept. But it makes sense.

**1979Shocker** · December 23, 2008, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by RoyalShock

Originally posted by im4wsu

If a player blocks a shot and the ball goes out of bounds, the Prouty gives some credit; but if that team then inbounds for a layup, there is nothing in Prouty to account for that. What good was the block if the other team scores?

Even more disturbing is that the player who blocked the shot may actually be the one who allowed the layup to be scored.

In high school we only got credit for a blocked shot if it directly resulted in our team getting the ball. Maybe that was just our coach's preference for how the stats should be kept. But it makes sense.

It would be nice if they kept stats for that. Then the Prouty Rating could be adjusted accordingly. Until then, we'll have to live with what we have.

**1979Shocker** · December 29, 2008, 12:39 AM

Wichita State vs Creighton Prouty Ratings

Code:

              CU       All 
Player       Game    Games 
Hannah*      0.499   0.407
Clemente     0.128   0.367
Murry*       0.423   0.346
Hawkins      0.319   0.340
Stutz        0.224   0.305
Griskenas    0.256   0.294
Durley       0.175   0.291
Chamberlain  0.280   0.284
Kyles        0.000   0.241
Michael      0.000   0.228
Hatch        0.022   0.215
Ellis        0.147   0.181
Britton      0.000   0.064
Steven       0.000   0.001
TEAM         0.351   0.381

Team Winning Percentage: 0.500

* Improved from previous game.

**Snapshot9** · December 29, 2008, 10:51 AM

1979 - Murry has no 'a' in his name .... The spelling police

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