Redturd Game Thread

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Is there a reason why you keep saying we have zero Top 50 wins? Utah has a 1 in 16 chance of finishing below that threshold. Are you embracing two sigma outcomes now and assuming they are automatic?

I was just taking the number from http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita St..html, which quite possibly just wrong.

I took a look and rpiforecast does appear to have a glitch. It clearly shows Utah is top 50 now and projected to finish top 50, but also shows WSU projected to have zero top 50 wins. Strange. Based on the expectations listed for wins over 51-100, I think they have the Utah win grouped there for some unknown reason.

@CBB_Fan:, I'll have a response to you list of teams later today.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Jamar, CBB, Angry:

My head is spinning.

I just hope the Shocks do not have to win the MVC post season tournament in order to qualify for the Dance.

Just mull this over. The Red Birds win the MVC tournament and go to the Dance and the Shocks stay home.

Lotsa suicide watches will be going on.

Just sayin'.

[WSUwatcher]

Yes, Ricky, and if a meteorite falls out of the sky and lands on Fred and Ron as they're walking across campus together, it could get even worse -- but that's about equally as likely an outcome.

[pinstripers]

Jamar, CBB, Angry:

My head is spinning.

I just hope the Shocks do not have to win the MVC post season tournament in order to qualify for the Dance.

Just mull this over. The Red Birds win the MVC tournament and go to the Dance and the Shocks stay home.

Lotsa suicide watches will be going on.

Just sayin'.

if that's our only loss, we still go

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

For comparison, the teams I would put on the bubble are:

Team - RPI, SOS, Top 50, Top 100
St. Bonaventure - 51, 79, 2-4, 5-7

Lose @ Indiana State and in the MVC Semis vs Illinois State? RPI 54, no wins against top 50 teams. We do not dance if that scenario occurs.

@CBB_Fan, I pulled St. Bonaventure out of your list because they currently have a nearly identical W/L record and SOS as the Shox. Also, as I mentioned in a previous post, WSU does have a top 50 win over Utah (rpiforecast.com has an error), so currently, the Shox and Bonnies are tied in that regard with 1 each.



Advantages WSU:
The committee has said in the past that they like to reward teams that schedule tough in the non-con. Advantage WSU.
WSU’s RPI is 17 spots better. Advantage WSU.
The KenPom disparity is monstrous. Nobody has ever finished top 25 and failed to get a bid. Nobody outside the top 70 has ever received an atlarge. Advantage WSU.
The margin of victory disparity is huge. St. Bonaventure hasn’t won a game by 20 points yet this season. WSU has done it 9 times with a very similar schedule. Advantage WSU.
WSU’s roster was decimated in several of their losses. From what I can tell, St. Bonaventure has been pretty healthy this year. Advantage WSU.

Advantages St. Bonaventure:
*Crickets*

Currently, WSU’s resume is way out in front of St. Bonaventure’s. Even if the Shox drop 1 more regular season game and lose in St. Louis, there is not a single category where St. Bonaventure will have any significant advantage on WSU, and several of WSU's current advantages will still remain in WSU's favor. It is very unlikely that St. Bonaventure will surpass WSU on the committee’s S-Curve come selection sunday unless WSU loses twice more in the regular season AND then again in St. Louis. The current gap is just too wide. St. Bonaventure may well sneak into the field, but if they do, it will mostly likely be at the expense of one of the other bubble teams on your list, not at the expense of the Shox.

Looking at the rest of your list, I feel the same way about Georgia, Georgetown, Oregon St, UCLA, Texas Tech, and Kansas State (and probably more). None of them are going to pass the Shockers short of an epic finish by them or a complete meltdown by the Shox (3 more losses). I'm happy to go into more detail if you want me to look at a specific team, but my point is, practically half your list isn't going to catch WSU.

If the Shox finish with 8 or fewer losses, they are in. No doubt in my mind.

[Singeril]

Just WIN!

[pie n eye]

And also work on rebounding, defending without fouling (as much as is in our control) and zone offense. All are mostly within our control.

[WSUwatcher]

I don't know that any of the selectors will rely that much on KenPom, but it's certainly possible -- KP is one of the better known metrics -- and as JH4P's observations make clear, if they do that's likely to bode well for WSU in both selection and seeding. Also, if there's a way to compile KenPom numbers based on just a particular stretch of games, such as since LeFred returned -- or even just to compare WSU's rating after six games to what it is now (and maybe there is, but I don't know how to get to it, and I'm not a subscriber, which gives me less searching capability) -- that's going to make WSU look better, too. No doubt much the same would be true of any other metric, as well.

One other aspect of KenPom specifically that relates not just to the numbers but to actual play, is that, in general, I'd also expect WSU to outperform their AdjO (their weak link this year on KenPom) and AdjD numbers. Why? Because those values are PER 100 possessions, and one of WSU's key strengths is getting EXTRA possessions, whether by rebounding (need to get back on track there, obviously), getting a high share of "50-50" balls, avoiding turnovers, or turning over their opponents. (One of the keys to their loss Saturday was that the Shocks didn't make up for their poor shooting with their customary advantage in total shots, because the Jailbirds got lots of second chances and also took care of the ball better than most Shocker foes do.) If two teams have equal offensive and defensive numbers per 100 possessions, and they meet, but A gets 6-7 more possessions that turn into shots than B does, I'm betting on A.

So if WSU returns to normal Shocker behavior in terms of getting extra possessions, which is probably likely, their usual edge in FG attempts per game figures to be a hidden plus that may not show up in per possession metrics but will nevertheless move the scoreboard in their favor when the games are actually played.

[another shocker]

'difficult to watch wichita state get a big second half lead, think they had it in the bag, and then slip into cruise control while ilsu was still fighting.