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It is an Insider article, so I won't copy-paste anything but the Wichita State related information. Most importantly, here's our projection (POFF and PDEF are predictions for points scored/allowed per 100 possessions:
23. Wichita State Shockers
Conf Rank: 1st in MVC | POFF: 111.7 | PDEF: 91.5
Best case: 9th | Worst case: 55thWith Fred VanVleet, Cleanthony Early, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton all returning, Wichita State's offense should be strong. But the Shockers may have trouble replacing Carl Hall's shot-blocking and interior presence, so the defense could take a small step back.
Others in the MVC:
#. Team - Best/Worst (O/D)
69. Northern Iowa - 36/107 (109.3/93)
78. Indiana State - 54/123 (102/93)
147. Drake - 88/199 (104.3/101.9)
148. Evansville - 92/195 (102.8/100.4)
149. Missouri State - 89/197 (102.9/100.6)
153. Bradley - 97/195 (105.4/103.4)
183. Illinois State - 97/248 (101.1/101.3)
199. Loyola - 118/246 (100.2/102)
210. Southern Illinois - 117/263 (99.4/102.1)
For comparison, last year's projections:
24. Creighton (117.8/97.6)
48. Northern Iowa (112.3/96.1)
92. Illinois State (105.9/97.4)
127. Wichita State (99.3/95.9)
129. Evansville (105.2/102)
135. Indiana State (99.1/96.7)
138. Southern Illinois )101.5/99.2)
168. Drake (99.3/100.1)
172. Missouri State (97.3/98.8)
206. Bradley (96.3/101.2)
Thoughts:
1. I hope we outperform his expectations as much as last year. For those wondering why our prediction was so laughably bad, his model completely breaks down with JUCO players and lower ranked recruits (3* and below) and relies heavily on returning players. We lost a lot of good players and didn't replace them with 5* freshmen, so we looked bad. Then again, take Early, Baker, Wessel, Wiggins, and Lufile off our team and we probably wouldn't have been nearly as good.
2. His model predictions that we will have the best offense AND the best defense in the league by a fair margin. I'd guess he's probably right about the defense being a slight step back from last year, which is more a testimony to last year's team than a knock on this one. I think we'll be even better than he predicts on offense though.
3. Out of the Valley team's, he predicts that only UNI has a shot at getting an at-large bid. His projections also imply a couple of groups. The top group is just us, followed by a fairly large gap and UNI/Indiana State. Then he projects that Drake, Evansville, Missouri State, and Bradley are basically as close as possible (three actually in a row). Finally you have the have-nots that are almost certain to be horrible.
4. Overall, he projects the MVC average at 135.9 compared to last years 123.9. As a broad statement, I think that this prediction at least will be fairly accurate. The Valley as whole returns only 49% of its minutes from last season, the lowest for any conference with a hope at an at-large bid. Additionally, the conference did not bring in sure-fire recruits, with only one Top 100 freshmen and only 14 Top 100 JUCO players. That means that as a whole, the conference's talent level is down.
5. Pomeroy also has his ratings out. He has us at #40, with UNI and Indiana State at 97 and 98. Like Hanner, his model focuses mainly on returning minutes and star freshmen. He also had us fairly low last season to start with, despite finishing 2012 at #13.
23. Wichita State Shockers
Conf Rank: 1st in MVC | POFF: 111.7 | PDEF: 91.5
Best case: 9th | Worst case: 55thWith Fred VanVleet, Cleanthony Early, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton all returning, Wichita State's offense should be strong. But the Shockers may have trouble replacing Carl Hall's shot-blocking and interior presence, so the defense could take a small step back.
Others in the MVC:
#. Team - Best/Worst (O/D)
69. Northern Iowa - 36/107 (109.3/93)
78. Indiana State - 54/123 (102/93)
147. Drake - 88/199 (104.3/101.9)
148. Evansville - 92/195 (102.8/100.4)
149. Missouri State - 89/197 (102.9/100.6)
153. Bradley - 97/195 (105.4/103.4)
183. Illinois State - 97/248 (101.1/101.3)
199. Loyola - 118/246 (100.2/102)
210. Southern Illinois - 117/263 (99.4/102.1)
For comparison, last year's projections:
24. Creighton (117.8/97.6)
48. Northern Iowa (112.3/96.1)
92. Illinois State (105.9/97.4)
127. Wichita State (99.3/95.9)
129. Evansville (105.2/102)
135. Indiana State (99.1/96.7)
138. Southern Illinois )101.5/99.2)
168. Drake (99.3/100.1)
172. Missouri State (97.3/98.8)
206. Bradley (96.3/101.2)
Thoughts:
1. I hope we outperform his expectations as much as last year. For those wondering why our prediction was so laughably bad, his model completely breaks down with JUCO players and lower ranked recruits (3* and below) and relies heavily on returning players. We lost a lot of good players and didn't replace them with 5* freshmen, so we looked bad. Then again, take Early, Baker, Wessel, Wiggins, and Lufile off our team and we probably wouldn't have been nearly as good.
2. His model predictions that we will have the best offense AND the best defense in the league by a fair margin. I'd guess he's probably right about the defense being a slight step back from last year, which is more a testimony to last year's team than a knock on this one. I think we'll be even better than he predicts on offense though.
3. Out of the Valley team's, he predicts that only UNI has a shot at getting an at-large bid. His projections also imply a couple of groups. The top group is just us, followed by a fairly large gap and UNI/Indiana State. Then he projects that Drake, Evansville, Missouri State, and Bradley are basically as close as possible (three actually in a row). Finally you have the have-nots that are almost certain to be horrible.
4. Overall, he projects the MVC average at 135.9 compared to last years 123.9. As a broad statement, I think that this prediction at least will be fairly accurate. The Valley as whole returns only 49% of its minutes from last season, the lowest for any conference with a hope at an at-large bid. Additionally, the conference did not bring in sure-fire recruits, with only one Top 100 freshmen and only 14 Top 100 JUCO players. That means that as a whole, the conference's talent level is down.
5. Pomeroy also has his ratings out. He has us at #40, with UNI and Indiana State at 97 and 98. Like Hanner, his model focuses mainly on returning minutes and star freshmen. He also had us fairly low last season to start with, despite finishing 2012 at #13.