AN EARLY PREVIEW OF THE WSU BASKETBALL 2012-2013 SEASON

[SpanglerFan316]

Pointless response, but thanks for the grammar check.

Perhaps I should note that you have WSU in fifth place in your list but later write "We continue on to #6, Wichita State: 6. Wichita State." My comments were based on your selection of WSU in sixth place; I ignored your list and went to your write-up about WSU.

I hope you will return to this thread at the end of the MVC season and either take credit for a correct prediction or admit an error. With respect to the betting lines, your comments might be "spot on"; especially in OOC games, I have no idea how WSU will perform. With respect to the final Valley standings, however, I think it is crazy to pick WSU to finish in sixth place.

To be fair, I should justify my prediction that the Shocks will finish in the Top Five. Shocker fans expect the new players to take time to adjust to D1 basketball; I believe WSU will be inconsistent in early (i.e. before February) games. However there is a huge amount of potential in the Shocks locker room and I believe that enough (probably not all but enough) of the new players will adjust to D1 BB for the Shocks to be one of the top two teams in the conference. I would expect some early Valley losses and a slightly disappointing record at the end of January and then for the team to jell and play well for the rest of the season; the early losses might doom WSU to a fourth or fifth place finish (but I doubt this). I'll guess that WSU finishes in third place and hope I am being pessimistic.

Let's look at weaknesses in some of the other Valley teams.
Drake (5th or 6th): I believe many Drake and MVC fans regard Mark Phelps as a good recruiter who is not a great game coach and whose teams do not get close to their potential. Rice is gone and the team has to adjust; this will probably cause some bumps along the way.
Evansville (4th): I think most Valley teams will try to limit the damage by Colt (Ryan) and keep the rest of the UE team under control and many will succeed. Marty is a good coach but I don't see UE finishing in fourth.
Illinois State (2nd): A new coach and a new point guard tell me that you are guessing here; a lot of the Redbirds season may depend on how the refs call games. I'm sure any Valley team would be happy to have Carmichel. We will just have to see if comments like "This is the most athletic and exciting team in the MVC" turn out to be correct.
Creighton (1st): They can score but can they play defense? Remember the old saying "Defense wins championships"? Who was predicted to finish first last year? (Creighton) Who actually finished first last year? (WSU).

[BTBJordan]

Again, thank you for the responses. I spoke with WuDrWu about knowing I am entering a WSU board and picking them 5th is not something I would recommend to people and I do not want this to be contentious at all, just looking for input on the team with the most unknown and potential entering the year. The way to get a heads up on the linesmakers is to know something they don't.

WuFan, I agree. I think they win both at home and could easily steal one against those teams on the road. Just saying at this moment, if they played on neutral floor against Drake or UE would they win? If would definitely be close and having Simons or Ryan would be a huge advantage. WSU will have trouble early in the season closing out a close game.

It reminds me a bit of Iowa State last season, it took them a long time to gel, but when they did they were one of the best teams in the country.

Lastly, I also told WuDrWu that I may see this team walk off the bus and play their first half of the season and immediately move them to number 2 in the Valley. That has to be exciting, there is no other team I would say that about. Every other team you know what you are going to see.

[BTBJordan]

Perhaps I should note that you have WSU in fifth place in your list but later write "We continue on to #6, Wichita State: 6. Wichita State." My comments were based on your selection of WSU in sixth place; I ignored your list and went to your write-up about WSU.

I hope you will return to this thread at the end of the MVC season and either take credit for a correct prediction or admit an error. With respect to the betting lines, your comments might be "spot on"; especially in OOC games, I have no idea how WSU will perform. With respect to the final Valley standings, however, I think it is crazy to pick WSU to finish in sixth place.

To be fair, I should justify my prediction that the Shocks will finish in the Top Five. Shocker fans expect the new players to take time to adjust to D1 basketball; I believe WSU will be inconsistent in early (i.e. before February) games. However there is a huge amount of potential in the Shocks locker room and I believe that enough (probably not all but enough) of the new players will adjust to D1 BB for the Shocks to be one of the top two teams in the conference. I would expect some early Valley losses and a slightly disappointing record at the end of January and then for the team to jell and play well for the rest of the season; the early losses might doom WSU to a fourth or fifth place finish (but I doubt this). I'll guess that WSU finishes in third place and hope I am being pessimistic.

Let's look at weaknesses in some of the other Valley teams.
Drake (5th or 6th): I believe many Drake and MVC fans regard Mark Phelps as a good recruiter who is not a great game coach and whose teams do not get close to their potential. Rice is gone and the team has to adjust; this will probably cause some bumps along the way.
Evansville (4th): I think most Valley teams will try to limit the damage by Colt (Ryan) and keep the rest of the UE team under control and many will succeed. Marty is a good coach but I don't see UE finishing in fourth.
Illinois State (2nd): A new coach and a new point guard tell me that you are guessing here; a lot of the Redbirds season may depend on how the refs call games. I'm sure any Valley team would be happy to have Carmichel. We will just have to see if comments like "This is the most athletic and exciting team in the MVC" turn out to be correct.
Creighton (1st): They can score but can they play defense? Remember the old saying "Defense wins championships"? Who was predicted to finish first last year? (Creighton) Who actually finished first last year? (WSU).

Again, the order of the posts are current value at this moment. That has nothing to do with how they will finish. Currently I think Drake is better but I expect WSU to move ahead of them as the season progresses.

I will be here all season long checking in. Feel free to bump this thread and let me know. However, power rankings can be fleeting and their rankings can change. They have to change to stay ahead.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Coach Marshall will have to do some COACHING this year. He will lose at least 15% of his hair. We will have more ups than downs, but the UPS will be awesome even if the down is heartbreaking.

I see us going 10-6 (Struggling early, finishing strong) in the Valley, and this is the type of team that seems to win in St. Louis. We finish 3rd. Avoiding Creighton until the Championship Round.

[SpanglerFan316]

Again, the order of the posts are current value at this moment. That has nothing to do with how they will finish. Currently I think Drake is better but I expect WSU to move ahead of them as the season progresses.

I will be here all season long checking in. Feel free to bump this thread and let me know. However, power rankings can be fleeting and their rankings can change. They have to change to stay ahead.

Thanks for your interest and comments. I don't agree that "Currently ... Drake is better" because of Phelps but I've been wrong before and both teams will be very different (i.e. more experienced) by the time they meet on January 2 in Des Moines. The relative ranking between DU and WSU is like the "value" of your house; until you put it on the market, the "value" is just a hypothetical number that might or might not have a basis in reality.

[SpanglerFan316]

I will be here all season long checking in. Feel free to bump this thread and let me know. However, power rankings can be fleeting and their rankings can change. They have to change to stay ahead.

I have to ask; do you work for a polling organization? Or the weather bureau? :friendly_wink:

[The Mad Hatter]

Coach Marshall will have to do some COACHING this year. He will lose at least 15% of his hair. We will have more ups than downs, but the UPS will be awesome even if the down is heartbreaking.

I see us going 10-6 (Struggling early, finishing strong) in the Valley, and this is the type of team that seems to win in St. Louis. We finish 3rd. Avoiding Creighton until the Championship Round.

There are 18 Valley games.

[another shocker]

Thanks for your interest and comments. I don't agree that "Currently ... Drake is better" because of Phelps but I've been wrong before and both teams will be very different (i.e. more experienced) by the time they meet on January 2 in Des Moines. The relative ranking between DU and WSU is like the "value" of your house; until you put it on the market, the "value" is just a hypothetical number that might or might not have a basis in reality.

Wichita State has too much going on at guard, is what it is, BTBJordan.

[forevershockerfan]

1. Creighton 2. WSU 3. Illinois State 4. N. Iowa 5. Evansville---This is what I think. Some of the mags will say the same but with illinois State 2nd and WSU 3rd. We were indeed picked 2nd last Season but won the Valley with 5 very solid and experienced Seniors leading the way. The key to us winning was we were road warriors. When Creighton beat us at 21st and Hillside, we could have buckled. Instead, we gained momentum and shocked the world in Omaha by beating them by 21.

Many of us agree that this Season's team should really jell in Feb. and hopefully March. Just how fast can a reloaded team mesh into a very consistent winning team? Dunno, but with Coach Marshall at the helm, I like our chances. Remember, this is his best Recruiting Class here ever.

[Kung Wu]

Thanks for the input, the initial rankings are a current value. Currently I see the Shockers beating Drake and UE. If they played today on a neutral court, would you take the Shockers over UE and Drake??

There is enough core in tact (HC3GM, Hall and Williams) and enough raw experience (Armstead) and enough new talent to beat Drake.

Regarding the Ases, they lost 5 games last season where they scored over 70. They also only went 3-2 when scoring under 70. That tells me they are unbalanced. A strong defensive team has a very good chance of winning because the Aces defense sucks. Shut down their offense and they are in a pile of doo-doo.

So what does that mean for us? We look like an extremely strong defensive team. I think Armstead vs Ryan will be very, very interesting -- if Armstead gets the assignment. And Cotton vs Ryan could be interesting too.

Based on our defense vs their offense I think we win right now. Will be close though until
our offense gels.

[Aargh]

Fellas,

We have completed our early season preview for the MVC if you are interested. I enjoy MVC basketball, I think it one of the purest and most exciting to watch, however very tough to handicap. Your homecourt advantage is one of the best in all of college basketball! I read this forum every day during the season, thanks for your work and insight!

www.besttruebets.net/BTB-Blog

If you want to project WSU as 5th in the MVC, you might want to do that at http://www.mvcfans.com/viewforum.php?f=2 They really like picking on WSU over there.

[Aargh]

Drake? Drake?? Simons is a player, but Rice was the heart of the team. They get VanDeest back. I doubt Orukpe can put up many points against VanDeest, but VanDeest is more likely to pull a Bill walker than score anything against Orukpe.

I'd take VanVleet, Cotton, Wiggins, White, and Lufile against DU in a heartbeat, and that looks like WSU's second line of players. Let the subs be Mitchell, Wessel, Baker, and Early, and I'll still take the Shox to sweep DU.

[vtshocker]

6th place is ridiculous, that garbage belongs on mvcfans and on a Creighton site because id like to see them lose some money in Vegas

[The Mad Hatter]

Drake? Drake?? Simons is a player, but Rice was the heart of the team. They get VanDeest back. I doubt Orukpe can put up many points against VanDeest, but VanDeest is more likely to pull a Bill walker than score anything against Orukpe.

I'd take VanVleet, Cotton, Wiggins, White, and Lufile against DU in a heartbeat, and that looks like WSU's second line of players. Let the subs be Mitchell, Wessel, Baker, and Early, and I'll still take the Shox to sweep DU.

Also I noticed that VanDeest is listed at 25 lbs heavier than he was when he last played. Judging by his roster picture, I'm not convinced the added weight has been muscle.

[Dave Stalwart]

Oh my... It almost makes me think of those pictures online of the kid who can't get anything right.

"Coach said to gain 25 pounds to play at this level... Didn't know he meant muscle"