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2021-22 Basketball happenings around the American Athletic!

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  • As I see it, one of four things will happen to Wichita State as the dominos fall.

    1. The Big 12 breaks up and the AAC takes some of fleeing programs
    2. The Big 12 is absorbed wholly by the PAC12*
    3. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State stays
    4. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State leaves

    The first is the best option for us, and seems to be the one that most are predicted. Adding programs like Baylor and Kansas State will only better the conference. In football, it won't change the equation for the AAC to make them a power conference, but in basketball it may fully push it ahead of the SEC and Pac-12 on a consistent basis. I've even seen a prediction that Kansas would be spurned by the B1G and head to the AAC, though in that case I think the Big 12 stays put and tries to rebuild rather than imploding; I don't think it is very feasible to have Kansas leave the conference except to head to the B1G or Pac-12. At a guess, KU and Iowa State would go to the B1G, WVU to the ACC, and the rest would look to join the AAC.

    The second really doesn't effect us whatsoever. It may make the AAC less stable, but for the next decade or so it would likely mean that the current conference would exist as-is. It may change the calculus for the football schools though; a P4 would have a much higher incentive to push for an 8-team playoff where the winners and runners-up of the mega conferences would take the playoff spots. That would make it hard for a UCF type team to get a playoff spot unless it expands to 12 or 16 teams. Long term, this might kill NCAA D1 football beyond the power conference level.

    The third option is the worst for us by far. Imagine the Big 12 loses OU, Texas, KU, and WVU for instance. They rebuild by adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, Boise State, and BYU. Wichita State is left in a conference not two dissimilar from the MVC, with a rivalry against Tulsa as the main selling point. For example, last year Wichita State would be the best remaining AAC basketball program at KenPom #68, with the next best being Tulsa at #121. The AAC would need to poach CUSA and the A-10 just to have enough members to really function as a conference. Most likely this would mean adding teams like St. Bonaventure and VCU or North Texas and LA Tech.

    The fourth really depends on where we land up. From a basketball perspective, jumping ship to the Big East makes a decent amount of sense. We rebuild our northern rivalry, and establish ourselves in a basketball-focused conference is one of the best in the country. But there are major challenges to joining the Big East, because we do not match their current institutional makeup of private Catholic schools. The other options include jumping back to the MVC (horrible), joining the MWC (sidegrade with bad geography), or joining a new conference formed out of the ashes of the Big 12, A10, MWC, and AAC. This could be the most tumultuous for us; ultimately we could end up better off than now or worse than we were before leaving the MVC and anywhere in-between.





    Last edited by CBB_Fan; July 26, 2021, 10:25 AM.

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    • The AAC has been a growing asset for ESPN. If they want to be aggressive, they need to back up the truck for five B12 schools. Renegotiate the TV deal so that a move to the American doesn't represent a huge pay cut.

      Alternatively, ESPN and the AAC could wait and hope the B12 implodes so that the AAC can scoop up the remnants for pennies on the dollar. However, if they choose to wait, the AAC could very well lose its top schools.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by TrackSuitAndTie View Post
        The AAC has been a growing asset for ESPN. If they want to be aggressive, they need to back up the truck for five B12 schools. Renegotiate the TV deal so that a move to the American doesn't represent a huge pay cut.

        Alternatively, ESPN and the AAC could wait and hope the B12 implodes so that the AAC can scoop up the remnants for pennies on the dollar. However, if they choose to wait, the AAC could very well lose its top schools.
        ESPN is a very important factor in this. They and the AAC could have the power if ESPN really wants to pull that trigger. Fox is not maintaining the current level without UT and OU and no additions of Houston and Cincinnati or whoever are going to keep it there. I'm sure the Mouse has people already running numbers and figuring out where to go from here.
        Infinity Art Glass - Fantastic local artist and Shocker fan
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        • Originally posted by SubGod22 View Post

          ESPN is a very important factor in this. They and the AAC could have the power if ESPN really wants to pull that trigger. Fox is not maintaining the current level without UT and OU and no additions of Houston and Cincinnati or whoever are going to keep it there. I'm sure the Mouse has people already running numbers and figuring out where to go from here.
          The Mouse has likely had unofficial people passing numbers for a year now. OU and UT don't jump ship to a harder football conference without having an idea of what the pay would be.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Shock Top View Post
            If they want to go with 16 schools (instead of, say 20), they dream scenario would be:

            - Absorb all the B12 schools
            - Hope they want to keep Navy/WSU and drop ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa.

            That gets you a pretty salty 16 team conference.
            Make it happen!!
            -
            North South
            WSU/Navy UH
            Cinci SMU
            Temple Memphis
            KU UCF
            KSU USF
            OSU Baylor
            ISU TTU
            WVU TCU

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Shock Top View Post

              Make it happen!!
              -
              North South
              WSU/Navy UH
              Cinci SMU
              Temple Memphis
              KU UCF
              KSU USF
              OSU Baylor
              ISU TTU
              WVU TCU
              And would Lunardi consider this a power basketball conference?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by wichshock65 View Post

                And would Lunardi consider this a power basketball conference?
                That's a conference that gets at minimum six in the field and stronger than the PAC, BE and SEC in basketball.
                Infinity Art Glass - Fantastic local artist and Shocker fan
                RIP Guy Always A Shocker
                Downsizing Government - Part of the Cato Institute
                Carpenter Place - A blessing to many young girls/women
                Cato Institute - A libertarian take on the issues
                ICT S.O.S - Great local cause fighting against human trafficking
                Wartick Insurance Agency - Saved me money with more coverage.
                MVCFans Alternative, Where ALL Voices Can Be Heard - Come join the party

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                • As much as I don't like it, OU and UT will be in the SEC next year. Whatever buy out or agreement needs to happen, will happen. Both programs are flush and have deep donor pockets, plus huge money will be coming from the SEC. They will make it happen and the B12 has no reason to keep it from happening. Even if the money seems huge....$50 million or more. Texas could raise that in a week, if needed. It's the world today. Again, I don't like it (and this comes from a person with ties to OU) but it's what will happen.

                  The wheels are in motion, and the next few weeks will be very important to a bunch of midwest schools, WSU included.


                  I was one who, correctly, gave ADDB a lot of credit when it came to getting into the AAC. Well ADDB, what have you done for me lately? The clock is ticking.........

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

                    Utah and Arizona are not on the list. The 17 states are:

                    1.Texas
                    2.Alabama
                    3. Idaho
                    4. Iowa
                    5. Oklahoma
                    6. South Carolina
                    7. South Dakota
                    8. Kentucky
                    9. North Carolina
                    10. Kansas
                    11. Mississippi
                    12. Tennessee
                    13. Florida
                    14. Montana
                    15. Arkansas
                    16. West Virginia
                    17. North Dakota
                    I wonder when Cal will be rescheduling that game at TCU on 9/11?

                    Capture.JPG

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post
                      As much as I don't like it, OU and UT will be in the SEC next year. Whatever buy out or agreement needs to happen, will happen. Both programs are flush and have deep donor pockets, plus huge money will be coming from the SEC. They will make it happen and the B12 has no reason to keep it from happening. Even if the money seems huge....$50 million or more. Texas could raise that in a week, if needed. It's the world today. Again, I don't like it (and this comes from a person with ties to OU) but it's what will happen.

                      The wheels are in motion, and the next few weeks will be very important to a bunch of midwest schools, WSU included.


                      I was one who, correctly, gave ADDB a lot of credit when it came to getting into the AAC. Well ADDB, what have you done for me lately? The clock is ticking.........
                      There’s a somewhat likely scenario where we lose our affiliation with schools like Cincy, Memphis, and Houston as they form another conference with the Big 12 leftovers, and man, that would be about as awful as you could imagine.

                      KU joining the Big Ten would be a good thing for us.
                      "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by TrackSuitAndTie View Post
                        The AAC has been a growing asset for ESPN. If they want to be aggressive, they need to back up the truck for five B12 schools. Renegotiate the TV deal so that a move to the American doesn't represent a huge pay cut.
                        You might want to look a Disney financials. They are hemorrhaging cash for the first 2 quarters this year. Their only bright spot has been Disney +, which through their package deals has increased the ESPN subscriber base while declining with the cable cutting.

                        Disney + Subscribers - 103.6 million
                        ESPN - 13.8 million

                        How many new subscribers would ESPN get if they brought the B12 teams in to the AAC? That gives you a rough estimate of what they could gain. I'm betting Disney execs see Disney + as the future and not ESPN, but maybe these remaining B12 teams markets are under utilizing ESPN.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

                          Utah and Arizona are not on the list. The 17 states are:

                          1.Texas
                          2.Alabama
                          3. Idaho
                          4. Iowa
                          5. Oklahoma
                          6. South Carolina
                          7. South Dakota
                          8. Kentucky
                          9. North Carolina
                          10. Kansas
                          11. Mississippi
                          12. Tennessee
                          13. Florida
                          14. Montana
                          15. Arkansas
                          16. West Virginia
                          17. North Dakota
                          Thanks for proving this info. That is truly a substantial list.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by MikeKennedyRulZ View Post

                            I wonder when Cal will be rescheduling that game at TCU on 9/11?

                            Capture.JPG
                            Is Cal a state or private school? When was the contract signed? They allow events to go forward if there were preexisting contracts before the state is put on their "list".

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                            • Everything hinges on that WSU/Navy partnership. We could be hat in hand to the Summit League if we get shown the door by the AAC.
                              Wichita State, home of the All-Americans.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post
                                As much as I don't like it, OU and UT will be in the SEC next year. Whatever buy out or agreement needs to happen, will happen. Both programs are flush and have deep donor pockets, plus huge money will be coming from the SEC. They will make it happen and the B12 has no reason to keep it from happening. Even if the money seems huge....$50 million or more. Texas could raise that in a week, if needed. It's the world today. Again, I don't like it (and this comes from a person with ties to OU) but it's what will happen.

                                The wheels are in motion, and the next few weeks will be very important to a bunch of midwest schools, WSU included.


                                I was one who, correctly, gave ADDB a lot of credit when it came to getting into the AAC. Well ADDB, what have you done for me lately? The clock is ticking.........
                                Hopefully, he’s at Von Maur buying larger underwear; his ‘cojones’ better be hanging, but they still need support. He might need to check into a nut bra.
                                "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

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