2020-21 Bracketology

[proshox]

I've been saying it for two weeks now that it is ridiculous that we are "on the bubble.". We should be solidly in the field.
KenPom, NET Rankings are a joke to prop up Power Conference schools like Duke, Kentucky, Penn State, etc.

The Coaches Poll, voted by, obviously, the coaches in the trenches, has us at 30, and we will likely be higher in their Rankings tomorrow.. They would seem to be the best judges of where the teams fall out.

Not only is it ridiculous, given our history over the past decade, that we have to sweat getting into the tournament every year, it is equally ridiculous for a team like Memphis State not to be solidly in the bracket.

The whole ratings\measuring system is a scam to protect the Power Five Conferences, along with the Big East and to ensure to the television providers that they get as many "big name" schools in as possible.

Glad to see some of you FINALLY getting indignant at the crappy treatment WSU gets year after year.

Our metrics are low because most of our games have been toss-ups with two minutes remaining. Statistically we should be much closer to .500. From an analytical standpoint- we are the equivalent to flipping a coin hundreds of times and having a run of 7 straight “heads.” Unfortunately for us, analytic models do not have a way of measuring intangibles that allowed this team to win multiple close games.

One more note - these metrics have been friendly to WSU and Midmajors that take care of business. This isn’t a conspiracy.

[Shock Top]

Our metrics are low because most of our games have been toss-ups with two minutes remaining. Statistically we should be much closer to .500. From an analytical standpoint- we are the equivalent to flipping a coin hundreds of times and having a run of 7 straight “heads.” Unfortunately for us, analytic models do not have a way of measuring intangibles that allowed this team to win multiple close games.

One more note - these metrics have been friendly to WSU and Midmajors that take care of business. This isn’t a conspiracy.

Then how is Pen State #35 and 9-13?

Have every one of their games been by 3 points or less?

[Shock Top]

I have no problem with Loyola or other good mid-majors being ranked high; they are good.

Teams that are .500 or worse though, does bother me.

[Shocknroll33]

As far as I'm concerned, a 10 seed would be a perfect landing spot for our Shox to make a run. There are 4 (the #1 seeds) really really good teams this season. Moving up to an 8 or 9, puts us up against one in round 2. Unless we can move up to a 7, which is only slightly possible with an AAC championship running through SMU and then Houston again in the finals.
Not even sure 6 straight 3's to end a game vs. Gonzaga would do it this season.
That being said, however, just getting in without having to play the xtra play-in game, and we can do some damage. I'm starting to smell a run in the air. SHOX!!!!

[AZ Shocker]

Let me see if I've got this right. I don't really know, but it seems like it would work like this.

Every team starts with an "assumed" AdjO and AdjD Let me use UNC and Duke as examples. Neither team is very good this year, but pre-season they would have been expected to be better, so the AdjO and AdjD for both is inflated before they play a game. Then they play each other. Both get their AdjD and AdjO adjusted favorably because of the metrics of the opponent. After they play each other, their metrics are even more inflated because they were already inflated. Each team's overrated offense does better than predicted because of the opponents overrated defense. Same thing works for the defensive metric.

If they have other opponents with inflated pre-season metrics, that process will be repeated and the starting value will remain in the formula. It seems the eventual outcome can be greatly affected by the starting assumption, ESPECIALLY in a shortened season.

Yep. It would appear as this is how it works.

[Dan]

Listening to Seth Davis on TV about Michigan-Michigan State he says: losing to Michigan is not bad, MSU just has to avoid bad losses. This is what pisses me off. We have zero bad losses, but that line of thinking doesn’t apply to us. They get to change the narrative depending on who they are talking about.

[David Rahm]

ProShox,

At the end of the day, it should be about wins and losses. We have a top 30 strength of schedule and won a tough conference.
To hell with the metrics.

Just win baby.

Again, the coaches see this and all of you sharpies keep talking metrics and how WSU just doesn't measure up.

What a steaming load of kaka!

Quit trying to justify the unjustifiable.

PS. Just finished watching Houston_Memphis, Loyola_Drake and Northwestern_Nebraska.

Memphis would slaughter these teams except Houston. It's a joke to claim otherwise.

We should be comfortably in, that is it!

So, go ahead and explain again why a Northwestern team that beats mighty Nebraska at home by one point on a last minute basket should be 20 or 30 spots above WSU.

[HenryMuto]

Anyone notice that Wichita State would have an RPI of 17 if that system was still used ?

Things are very interesting this year with the NET I mean Colgate is ranked in the top 10.

Cleveland State would have an RPI of 62 and their NET is 164.

I think if Wichita State makes the American finals they are a lock. Losing the semi-finals they still probably get in if Houston wins the championship. If losing in quarters that make things interesting but still might get in.

[Aargh]

If (and that's a BIG IF), Memphis beats WSU in the conference finals, AAC could get 3 teams in.

[SB Shock]

So, go ahead and explain again why a Northwestern team that beats mighty Nebraska at home by one point on a last minute basket should be 20 or 30 spots above WSU.

Northwestern NET is 88, they are 23 spots below WSU 65 NET. Maybe you were thinking of another team?

[Aargh]

IMHO Loyola deserves to be ranked. Drake deserves an at large. I also think that any of WSU/UH/UM would have little trouble taking them out.

[1979Shocker]

We've only played 19 games.

Two of those games were D2, so we only played 17 D1 games.

[ShockerFever]

I have no problem with Loyola or other good mid-majors being ranked high; they are good.

Teams that are .500 or worse though, does bother me.

I'm trying to figure out what Loyola's best win is. Drake? lol

[IndianaShocker]

I'm trying to figure out what Loyola's best win is. Drake? lol

Don't waste your time.

Sagarin lists top 25 & top 50 wins. The entire MVC has ZERO (0) top 25 wins and TWO (2) top 50 wins. The TWO (2) top 50 wins were victories over Loyola by Drake & Indiana State.

[pogo]

Don't waste your time.

Sagarin lists top 25 & top 50 wins. The entire MVC has ZERO (0) top 25 wins and TWO (2) top 50 wins. The TWO (2) top 50 wins were victories over Loyola by Drake & Indiana State.

So the Valley scheduled up this year right?