2020-21 Bracketology

[AZ Shocker]

Let me see if I've got this right. I don't really know, but it seems like it would work like this.

Every team starts with an "assumed" AdjO and AdjD Let me use UNC and Duke as examples. Neither team is very good this year, but pre-season they would have been expected to be better, so the AdjO and AdjD for both is inflated before they play a game. Then they play each other. Both get their AdjD and AdjO adjusted favorably because of the metrics of the opponent. After they play each other, their metrics are even more inflated because they were already inflated. Each team's overrated offense does better than predicted because of the opponents overrated defense. Same thing works for the defensive metric.

If they have other opponents with inflated pre-season metrics, that process will be repeated and the starting value will remain in the formula. It seems the eventual outcome can be greatly affected by the starting assumption, ESPECIALLY in a shortened season.

Yep. It would appear as this is how it works.

[Shocknroll33]

As far as I'm concerned, a 10 seed would be a perfect landing spot for our Shox to make a run. There are 4 (the #1 seeds) really really good teams this season. Moving up to an 8 or 9, puts us up against one in round 2. Unless we can move up to a 7, which is only slightly possible with an AAC championship running through SMU and then Houston again in the finals.
Not even sure 6 straight 3's to end a game vs. Gonzaga would do it this season.
That being said, however, just getting in without having to play the xtra play-in game, and we can do some damage. I'm starting to smell a run in the air. SHOX!!!!

[Shock Top]

I have no problem with Loyola or other good mid-majors being ranked high; they are good.

Teams that are .500 or worse though, does bother me.

[Shock Top]

Our metrics are low because most of our games have been toss-ups with two minutes remaining. Statistically we should be much closer to .500. From an analytical standpoint- we are the equivalent to flipping a coin hundreds of times and having a run of 7 straight “heads.” Unfortunately for us, analytic models do not have a way of measuring intangibles that allowed this team to win multiple close games.

One more note - these metrics have been friendly to WSU and Midmajors that take care of business. This isn’t a conspiracy.

Then how is Pen State #35 and 9-13?

Have every one of their games been by 3 points or less?

[proshox]

I've been saying it for two weeks now that it is ridiculous that we are "on the bubble.". We should be solidly in the field.
KenPom, NET Rankings are a joke to prop up Power Conference schools like Duke, Kentucky, Penn State, etc.

The Coaches Poll, voted by, obviously, the coaches in the trenches, has us at 30, and we will likely be higher in their Rankings tomorrow.. They would seem to be the best judges of where the teams fall out.

Not only is it ridiculous, given our history over the past decade, that we have to sweat getting into the tournament every year, it is equally ridiculous for a team like Memphis State not to be solidly in the bracket.

The whole ratings\measuring system is a scam to protect the Power Five Conferences, along with the Big East and to ensure to the television providers that they get as many "big name" schools in as possible.

Glad to see some of you FINALLY getting indignant at the crappy treatment WSU gets year after year.

Our metrics are low because most of our games have been toss-ups with two minutes remaining. Statistically we should be much closer to .500. From an analytical standpoint- we are the equivalent to flipping a coin hundreds of times and having a run of 7 straight “heads.” Unfortunately for us, analytic models do not have a way of measuring intangibles that allowed this team to win multiple close games.

One more note - these metrics have been friendly to WSU and Midmajors that take care of business. This isn’t a conspiracy.

[Aargh]

Let me see if I've got this right. I don't really know, but it seems like it would work like this.

Every team starts with an "assumed" AdjO and AdjD Let me use UNC and Duke as examples. Neither team is very good this year, but pre-season they would have been expected to be better, so the AdjO and AdjD for both is inflated before they play a game. Then they play each other. Both get their AdjD and AdjO adjusted favorably because of the metrics of the opponent. After they play each other, their metrics are even more inflated because they were already inflated. Each team's overrated offense does better than predicted because of the opponents overrated defense. Same thing works for the defensive metric.

If they have other opponents with inflated pre-season metrics, that process will be repeated and the starting value will remain in the formula. It seems the eventual outcome can be greatly affected by the starting assumption, ESPECIALLY in a shortened season.

[shock-it-to-me]

And yet we continue to drop in the rankings.

We’ve dropped in the net but moved up slots in bracket positions. Not very much admittedly

[ShockerFever]

Is it just me, or does it seem like 90% of the “bubble” games in the last two weeks have broke are way? Destiny!

And yet we continue to drop in the rankings.

[shock-it-to-me]

Is it just me, or does it seem like 90% of the “bubble” games in the last two weeks have broke are way? Destiny!

[ShockingButTrue]

Shox getting national headlines. getting harder for the committee to leave them out.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...le/4612399001/

I'm glad a there's a rational mind out there acknowledging the strength of WSU's schedule. Who really believes the selection committee doesn't take into account RPI, in any shape or form? They damn well do when it's convenient.

[Kel Varnsen]

The metrics this year just seem to be a steaming pile of ****. No way I believe that a team can lose 2/3 of their games and still be ranked 10+ higher. That doesn't past the eye test. Should common sense be a factor?

I assume you're referring to Kentucky or Northwestern, in which case, yes that is possible. They have both played very difficult schedules, and while they lost many of those games, it's about efficiency relative to the teams they've played, not resume, W-L, or the "eye test" (in quotations because it's super subjective). Neither team will be making the tournament, and likely not even the NIT to be honest.

You can be a good team and lose a lot of games if you play a really difficult schedule. And you shouldn't make the tournament.

[wichshock65]

True. So even if they haven’t dropped off completely, they’re having a negligible effect on our rating at this point.

I will also say that KenPom’s predictive ratings by themselves should not be used to select or seed teams in the tournament. That should be left to descriptive metrics like WAB or SOR, which can be calculated using predictive metrics like KenPom. NET is a bastardized amalgamation of the two types.

The metrics this year just seem to be a steaming pile of ****. No way I believe that a team can lose 2/3 of their games and still be ranked 10+ higher. That doesn't past the eye test. Should common sense be a factor?

[TrackSuitAndTie]

WSU is only ranked 78 according to them. So not any friendlier to the Shox.

WSU seems to be really punished for a lot of their game being close. If a few of them were by a couple more baskets, then this might not even be a topic of conversation.

I did notice that. Ideally a metric that is friendlier to us would follow the lead of Haslametrics and stop counting when the game is decided statistically haha.

[Kel Varnsen]

We've only played 19 games.

True. So even if they haven’t dropped off completely, they’re having a negligible effect on our rating at this point.

I will also say that KenPom’s predictive ratings by themselves should not be used to select or seed teams in the tournament. That should be left to descriptive metrics like WAB or SOR, which can be calculated using predictive metrics like KenPom. NET is a bastardized amalgamation of the two types.

[wichshock65]

The preseason ratings for KenPom and other metrics like it drop off about 15-20 games in the season. So our rating now has nothing to do with where we were at to start the season.

We've only played 19 games.