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2019-20 Bracketology

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  • So we are 6-3 in Q1 and Q2 games with a strength of schedule of 95. Not as strong as I would have thought but probably better than I thought going in to the season.

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    • Originally posted by FadedCrown View Post

      Isn't every year bad for bubble teams.
      What I foresee (and this is tongue in cheek): SDSU gets a #1 seed and faces either Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, or Gonzaga in early 2nd rd action. Sound familiar? If SDSU loses the auto bid in a conference tourny, they probably still get in, but a bid is stolen nonetheless.

      How about North Carolina? What if they reel off a bunch of wins in the down ACC? Are they on the bubble? If they manage to finish a game or two above .500, does a selection committee take pity on them because of circumstances regarding their missing star all these games? If so, they are a LOCK to knock a more worthy team off the bubble based on name recognition alone. They're already prepping media and non-fans alike: "UNC Basketball: NCAA Tournament still possible for Tar Heels? 6 hours ago - The UNC basketball program got off to an unimaginably rough start this season, but is an appearance in the 2020 NCAA Tournament still a possibility? ..."

      And the Big Ten? I can easily picture Purdue and Michigan getting in even though they currently sit, what 2 games above .500? All because they play in the mighty B10?? Its laughable. There WILL be a lot of disappointing results for non power conference teams MORE SO than have been in years past. Ohio State? If they can crawl to .501 in conference, they're DEFINITELY a lock for a 7 or 8 seed, right?

      Texas and TTech from the B12? Probably at this point?

      I can even see 5 teams EASY from the weakened ACC, and I'll go one further, they'll put 6 or 7 (hopefully not 8) in from that traditional power conference. Again, laughable.

      There are 6 decent teams in the Atlantic Ten - sorry, not looking up their complete resumes. How many will they get? 2? 3?

      The very ho-hum Big East will undeservedly get 6 or 7 teams, even though 1 (or 2) of them may be just a game or two above .500 in conference by season end.

      The NCAA Tourney is a CBS Sponsored Basketball Tournament. They pay for it. They have a fair amount of say in who gets in I'm sure, though none would admit it. This year, with so many power conference teams down, I don't see see the selection process flipping at all to admit teams that may deserve a bid over a team that "just plays in a better conference." All I'm saying is....look out. FEAR the bubble.



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      • You know what I think? I'm going to assume we finish 12-6 or 11-7 in AAC, not great but as long as we avoid 'bad' losses we'll get an at-large. While Fever is right, our SOS is not particularly well, I have faith in the committee that they will see we attempted to schedule strong but our marquee opponents are having an off year and won't hold that against us too bad. I'm predicting a 10 seed.

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        • Originally posted by JVShocker(1) View Post

          Not this year. No. Nowhere NEAR the bubble. Its gonna be a bad year for bubble teams and hard lessons learned about scheduling.
          Just what are the hard lessons on scheduling that will be learned? Scheduling teams like OU, the tourneys, and OSU are done at least 2 years in advance. They seemed like quality games to me then.

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          • Originally posted by Shockm View Post

            Just what are the hard lessons on scheduling that will be learned? Scheduling teams like OU, the tourneys, and OSU are done at least 2 years in advance. They seemed like quality games to me then.
            The point was that scheduling doesn't matter. "Team A plays in a better conference." Am I the only one that has ever heard that phrase uttered? Am I the only one watching college basketball games on TV? It happens EVERY night. They extol the virtues of Team A playing in the mighty P5 Conference on a regular basis, go to halftime to give us our daily update on Duke Basketball, and then go back to the game. "Its just such a difficult conference to win in." Blah blah blah....all that matters is winning games. Just WIN THE IMPORTANT ONES - you know, the auto qualifiers. The other games are just - as Eugene Levy once said..."practice, for the big dance."

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            • Teams have to schedule better and win games to improve net ratings individually and bolster the conference. Only 3 AAC teams had sub 100 ooc SOS and only WSU took advantage of it. 6 teams have 200+ ooc SOS. Every team but WSU has at least 1 Q3/Q4 loss. When the P5 schools go on the road in conference, nearly every game is a Q1. WSU and UH are the only safe bet to be Q1 road games the rest of the season. SMU, TU, UC are a loss or two away from being a Q2 and the floor is falling out from under Memphis. Bottom line is the AAC wants more than 3 or 4 teams dancing every year, the top teams need to have top sub 100 SOS and top 50 net. Everyone else needs sub 200 SOS, and at least 10 teams top 100 net with none outside of top 150

              It has been debated that WSU has one of the best ooc resumes. I can see both sides of the argument. Most of our ooc top teams have underperformed but we did go 12-1. The fact remains that only 30 D1 teams can go on the road, and it's a Q1 game for the home team. WSU is one of those teams. Just going off of net rating, WSU is top 10% as of right now and did make it all the way to #9 entering conference play. All this would lean me in the direction of having one of the better resumes in the county.

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              • Bracketology with Joe Lunardi - ESPN

                Updated: (January 28, 2020)

                Visit ESPN for live scores, highlights and sports news. Stream exclusive games on ESPN+ and play fantasy sports.


                Teams of Interest:
                2-seed West Virginia (previous 3)
                7-seed Wichita State (previous 7)
                8-seed Houston (previous 8)
                11-seed Oklahoma (previous 11)
                12-seed Memphis (previous 10)
                12-seed Tulsa (previous 12)
                12-seed VCU (previous 12)
                16-seed Texas Southern (previous 16)

                Other Teams of Interest:
                11-seed Northern Iowa (previous 11)
                11-seed East Tennessee State (previous 12)
                13-seed Loyola Chicago (previous 13)
                13-seed New Mexico State (previous 13)

                Last 4 In:
                Memphis - 2nd Spot
                VCU - 4th Spot

                First 4 Out:
                None

                Next 4 Out:
                None

                Comment


                • Bracketology 2020: Baylor is emerging as a title favorite - SB Nation

                  By Chris Dobbertean
                  Jan 28, 2020, 11:24am EST


                  "At a minimum, the Bears are building a great case to be the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday....

                  ↑2. West Virginia
                  ↑7. Wichita State
                  ↑8. Houston (AAC)
                  ↑9. Oklahoma
                  ↓11. Memphis
                  ↓11. VCU
                  ↓12. Northern Iowa (MVC)..."

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                  • Bubble Watch: Breaking down every team in at-large contention - NB S[prtsC

                    By Rob Dauster
                    Jan 28, 2020, 2:04 PM EST



                    "It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble tracker.

                    The way that it will work is simple: We’ll be looking at every team that our Dave Ommen, the best bracketologist in the business, considers in the mix for an at-large bid. In an effort to keep this somewhat manageable, we are going to assume that the top 36 teams in the field — every team that is a No. 9-seed or above — is “off the bubble”. This does not mean those teams are a lock to dance, it just means that they have given themselves enough room for error that we can take them out of the conversation until they do something dumb....

                    AMERICAN BUBBLE WATCH
                    Houston (NBC: 8-Seed), Wichita State (NBC: 8-Seed)

                    MEMPHIS (NET: 51, NBC: 10): Oh, Memphis. Two days after losing by 40 at Tulsa (65), the Tigers turn around and blow an 11-point lead in the final five minutes at home against SMU (68). They aren’t in real trouble yet, but it is worth noting that they have not beaten a single team in the top 50 in the NET and that their three best wins — Tennessee (55), Cincinnati (57) and N.C. State (60) — are teams that may not make the NCAA tournament. We’re in late-January and Memphis has as many Quad 3 losses as Quad 1 wins.

                    TULSA (NET: 69, NBC: Off the bubble): I thought Tulsa deserved a mention here given that they are currently tied for first in the American after winning at UConn (97) on Sunday. Their issue is that home wins over Houston (33) and Memphis (51) have both fallen outside of the top 30, which means that the committee will be focusing on the bad things: a Quad 3 loss, a Quad 4 loss and a non-conference SOS of 283rd. Tulsa gets Wichita State (30) at home on Saturday. That’s a must win, as are roadies against Houston and Wichita State...."

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                    • Bracketology Bubble Watch... - FanSided Sports

                      by Lukas Harkins
                      posted: 01/29/20, 3:50 cst

                      https://bustingbrackets.com/2020/01/...consideration/

                      "Selection Sunday is approaching in under two months....

                      The Bracketology Bubble Watch is back after taking a brief hiatus last week (I was sick and didn’t have time). As per usual, this update will analyze every single team currently in the at-large conversation for the NCAA Tournament. Now that Selection Sunday is under two months away, it’s time to pay serious attention to each team’s resume and where they stand in the grand scheme of the college basketball landscape at this point in time.

                      Of course, there are still several weeks left for teams to make substantial moves (both positively and negatively) but this will provide a nice snapshot of the bubble as it stands. Each team under consideration for an at-large bid for my bracketology projected fields has been lumped into one of four categories based on their current standing and there is a resume breakdown for everyone that is not currently anointed a “lock” to dance.

                      Here is a quick reminder of the categories…

                      Bubble Watch Categories:
                      Lead-pipe lock: Barring a massive collapse, these teams are sure-fire NCAA Tournament teams.


                      Firmly in the field: Through the first two months of the season, these teams have put together strong resumes and would not be sweating whatsoever if Selection Sunday was right now. They cannot, though, lose a bunch of games in a row and still remain safe.

                      Some perspiration: Teams in this category are in dangerous territory but would more than likely be in the NCAA Tournament right now. As long as they stay the course, an at-large bid is in their future. Slip-ups could increase the potential sweat level, though.

                      Double the deodorant: These are the squads who would be sweating out Selection Sunday most if the tournament started today. They have work left to do to either remain in the projected field or work their way in.

                      Lots of work to do: Going to need a miracle.

                      Now, without any further ado, let’s dive into the second edition of the 2020 bracketology bubble watch! This version of the bubble watch takes into account games played through Jan. 28th and the “Current Bracketology Placement” is based on my updated field from Jan. 28th.

                      AMERICAN
                      Lead-Pipe Locks: None.
                      Safely in the field: Houston, Wichita State
                      Some perspiration: None.
                      Double the deodorant: Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulsa, SMU
                      Lots of work to do: None

                      Houston Cougars (16-4, 6-1 AAC)
                      Houston is in a good spot to dance in a couple of months. The Cougars have only suffered one “bad loss” and their metrics are strong pretty much across the board. They should easily be one of the top contenders for the AAC regular-season title over the coming months and they should remain a clear-cut NCAA Tournament team as a result. They can still boast two Q1 wins (at Wichita State, vs. Washington) but one of those could slip out in the coming weeks. Either way, though, Houston is a great offensive team that has won 10 of its last 11 games. It is showing no real signs of slowing down even with four of its next six games coming on the road. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 7 seed.

                      Wichita State Shockers (17-3, 5-2 AAC)
                      Wichita State dropped a bit in bracketology during the past two weeks as some of its previous Q1 games fell to Q2. With that said, though, Wichita State is still in pretty good shape to dance as it belongs safely in the field at this moment. The Shockers have only lost three games all year long and are able to consistently rely on their defense to get stops. There aren’t many opportunities for big-time wins in AAC play but road matchups against Tulsa, Houston, and Cincinnati still loom in the coming months. Wichita State should hear its name called on Selection Sunday but its seed will depend on if it can win a few of those games. Current Bracketology Placement: No. 8 seed...."
                      Last edited by WuShock Reaper; January 29, 2020, 05:01 PM.

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                      • The 2020 Bracket Matrix - as of 1/28/2020



                        Total Brackets - 105

                        Teams of Interest:
                        2-seed West Virginia
                        7-seed Houston
                        7-seed Wichita State
                        10-seed Oklahoma
                        11-seed Memphis
                        11-seed VCU

                        Other Teams of Interest:
                        12-seed East Tennessee State
                        12-seed Northern Iowa
                        14-seed New Mexico State

                        First Four Out:
                        None

                        Next Four Out:
                        None

                        Others Receiving Votes:
                        Tulsa (8 votes)
                        Cincinnati (5 votes)
                        SMU (1 vote)

                        Comment


                        • Bracketology 2020: The bubble’s revolving door is back with a vengeance - SB Nation

                          By Chris Dobbertean
                          Jan 31, 2020, 4:29pm EST



                          "Our latest bracket projection features three new at-large teams and some new names under consideration.

                          The bubble is shrinking, slightly. Last week’s first look at the bubble for the 2019-20 season included a whopping 27 teams beyond the cut line. That total has been reduced to 25 for this week. If we drop two teams a week the rest of the way, we’ll reach a more manageable number of 13 by the time Selection Sunday arrives in six weeks.

                          Before we get to all that mess, it’s time to start handing out locks. Here’s a reminder of how this all works.

                          For the 2020 NCAA Tournament, it looks like just 23 conferences will earn a single bid.

                          That means that just 45 of the 68 places in the field are truly up for grabs — the 36 at-large spots and the nine that will go to the tournament winners of those nine multi-bid conferences.

                          In turn, those 45 spots will also largely disappear as teams move into the lock category. By the time Selection Weekend arrives, those of us in the bracketology-industrial complex will hope to be left making educated guesses about a handful of spots. With the way this season has played out so far, that could be asking a lot.


                          Teams of Interest:
                          Locks: None
                          Other Protected Seeds: West Virginia (2-seed)
                          Getting Near Lock Status: Houston (7-seed)
                          Bubble Teams: Wichita State (8-seed), Oklahoma (10-seed), VCU (11-seed)
                          The Cut Line: Memphis (First Four Out)
                          Also Considered: #81 Cincinnati, #90 Tulsa, #92 SMU, #93 South Carolina

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by WuShock Reaper View Post
                            Bracketology 2020: The bubble’s revolving door is back with a vengeance - SB Nation

                            By Chris Dobbertean
                            Jan 31, 2020, 4:29pm EST



                            "Our latest bracket projection features three new at-large teams and some new names under consideration.

                            The bubble is shrinking, slightly. Last week’s first look at the bubble for the 2019-20 season included a whopping 27 teams beyond the cut line. That total has been reduced to 25 for this week. If we drop two teams a week the rest of the way, we’ll reach a more manageable number of 13 by the time Selection Sunday arrives in six weeks.

                            Before we get to all that mess, it’s time to start handing out locks. Here’s a reminder of how this all works.

                            For the 2020 NCAA Tournament, it looks like just 23 conferences will earn a single bid.

                            That means that just 45 of the 68 places in the field are truly up for grabs — the 36 at-large spots and the nine that will go to the tournament winners of those nine multi-bid conferences.

                            In turn, those 45 spots will also largely disappear as teams move into the lock category. By the time Selection Weekend arrives, those of us in the bracketology-industrial complex will hope to be left making educated guesses about a handful of spots. With the way this season has played out so far, that could be asking a lot.


                            Teams of Interest:
                            Locks: None
                            Other Protected Seeds: West Virginia (2-seed)
                            Getting Near Lock Status: Houston (7-seed)
                            Bubble Teams: Wichita State (8-seed), Oklahoma (10-seed), VCU (11-seed)
                            The Cut Line: Memphis (First Four Out)
                            Also Considered: #81 Cincinnati, #90 Tulsa, #92 SMU, #93 South Carolina
                            We are suddenly a bubble team?

                            Comment


                            • Bracketology: ... - CBS Sports

                              By Jerry Palm
                              Posted: 01/31/20, 11:22am cst




                              Teams of Interest:
                              4-seed West Virginia (previous 4)
                              7-seed Wichita State (previous 8)
                              8-seed Houston (previous 8)
                              9-seed VCU (previous 9)
                              10-seed Oklahoma (previous 9)
                              10-seed Memphis (previous 10)

                              Other Teams of Interest:
                              12-seed East Tennessee State (previous 12)
                              12-seed Northern Iowa (previous 12)
                              13-seed New Mexico State (previous 13)

                              Last 4 In:
                              None

                              First 4 Out:
                              None

                              Next 4 Out:
                              None

                              Comment


                              • The number 23 team in the nation with a 17-3 record is a bubble team? The level of stupidity and P5 bias never ceases to amaze me...

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