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  • #16
    I'm skeptical about an NIT bid for two reasons.

    1. There may be fewer invitations this season. All regular season conference champs that don't make the NCAA Tourney are auto bids to the NIT. There were 12 auto-bids of this type last season, leaving 20 invitations. This year there are 10 conferences with co-champions (compared to 5 last season) which would tend to indicate more wide open conference tourneys. We'll need to root for things to go according to plan.

    2. Our NET is about to take a hit. Our next three games, should things go well, are ECU, Tulane and ECU. We'll need to not just win, but absolutely crush these teams to avoid falling out of the Top 100 the NET.

    Add to that: We have to have four AAC teams in the NCAA tournament to have a shot at the NIT. Memphis is likely a lock for the NIT, but I don't see three AAC teams in the NIT field if Temple's bubble bursts.

    If we don't get an NIT invite, I hope we get and accept an invitation to the CBI. While the calibre of the tournament has fallen somewhat in the past two years (no major conference teams since 2015), I think the experience gained in post-season play and extra practice time would be incredibly valuable for these guys.
    “The rebellion on the populist right against the results of the 2020 election was partly a cynical, knowing effort by political operators and their hype men in the media to steal an election or at least get rich trying. But it was also the tragic consequence of the informational malnourishment so badly afflicting the nation. ... Americans gorge themselves daily on empty informational calories, indulging their sugar fixes of self-affirming half-truths and even outright lies.'”

    ― Chris Stirewalt

    Comment

    • 1979Shocker
      #16.1
      1979Shocker commented
      March 4, 2019, 09:40 PM
      Editing a comment
      We only have two games left, ECU and Tulane. We already played and beat ECU on the road.
    • Wuzee
      #16.2
      Wuzee commented
      March 5, 2019, 11:05 AM
      Editing a comment
      If things go right, we'll play ECU again in the first round of the tournament.
  • #17
    CBI? Hell no.
    Deuces Valley.
    ... No really, deuces.
    ________________
    "Enjoy the ride."

    - a smart man

    Comment

    • #18
      Any qualms with these projections?

      Team Current Projected Outcome
      Houston 14-2 15-3 lose to cin; beat smu
      Cincinnati 14-2 15-3 lose to ucf; beat hou
      UCF 12-4 14-4 beat cin and temple
      Temple 11-5 11-7 lose to conn and ucf
      Memphis 10-7 11-7 beat tulsa
      Wichita 9-8 10-8 beat tulane
      South Florida 8-9 9-9 beat smu
      Tulsa 8-9 8-10 lose to memphis
      UConn 5-11 7-11 beat temple and ecu
      SMU 5-11 5-13 lose to hou and usf
      East Carolina 3-14 3-15 lose to conn
      Tulane 0-17 0-18 lose to ict

      If it pans out like this, who wins the tie breaker between Houston and Cincinnati, and between Temple and Memphis, for conference seeding purposes?
      Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!
      • Likes 1

      Comment

      • newshock1234
        #18.1
        newshock1234 commented
        March 7, 2019, 12:51 PM
        Editing a comment
        Think Cinci would be the 1 seed, Houston 2, Temple would be the 4, memphis with 5
      • Dan
        #18.2
        Dan commented
        March 7, 2019, 01:09 PM
        Editing a comment
        I think UCF will drop 1 game, probably against Cincy. I also don't think Tulsa will beat Memphis. Temple will beat UConn.
    • #19
      Okay so if the games pan out like above, and newshock1234 is correct, then the seeds would look like:

      1. Cincinnati
      2. Houston
      3. UCF
      4. Temple
      5. Memphis
      6. Wichita
      7. South Florida
      8. Tulsa
      9. UConn
      10. SMU
      11. East Carolina
      12. Tulane

      Which would result in these first round tournament matches:

      No. 8 Tulsa vs No. 9 UConn
      No. 5 Memphis vs No. 12 Tulane
      No. 7 South Florida vs No. 10 SMU
      No. 6 Wichita vs No. 11 East Carolina
      Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!
      • Likes 2

      Comment

      • #20
        CBI

        Perception is important.

        If you want to run with the big dogs then you can't piss with the pups.

        If you want to be considered a Major then you can't play in Mid-major tournaments.
        Last edited by Topshock; March 7, 2019, 05:27 PM.
        • Likes 2

        Comment

        • #21
          If the first round goes down as shown above then:

          No. 9 UConn would be expected to win.
          No. 5 Memphis would be expected to win.
          No. 10 SMU would be expected to win. (Sagarin shows them as being stronger on a neutral court, even though seeded lower)
          No. 6 Wichita would be expected to win.

          So I think the quarter finals would look like:

          No. 1 Cincinnati vs No. 9 UConn
          No. 4 Temple vs No. 5 Memphis
          No. 2 Houston vs No. 10 SMU
          No. 3 UCF vs No. 6 Wichita

          Can someone post the Kenpom chances of WSU beating UCF on a neutral court?
          Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

          Comment

          • #22
            Assuming the quarter finals played out as expected, except WSU wins then I think the semis would look like:

            No 1. Cincinnati vs No. 5 Memphis
            No 2. Houston vs No. 6 Wichita

            So what does Kenpom show as the percent chance of us beating Houston?

            How about Cincinnati?

            Those are three super tough games: UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. That's fo sho!
            Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!
            • Likes 1

            Comment

            • pie n eye
              #22.1
              pie n eye commented
              March 7, 2019, 01:23 PM
              Editing a comment
              One more, KW.
              • Likes 1
          • #23
            assuming we made it to the title game, would we rather play cinci on a neutral court or play memphis on their home court?
            Follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/Shox_KCfan

            Comment

            • pie n eye
              #23.1
              pie n eye commented
              March 7, 2019, 01:24 PM
              Editing a comment
              Would be nice to exact revenge on either one.
              • Likes 1
            • WstateU
              #23.2
              WstateU commented
              March 7, 2019, 01:29 PM
              Editing a comment
              I’d rather play the team with the rookie coach; even on his home floor in front of his worshipers....
              • Likes 1
          • #24
            Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
            Assuming the quarter finals played out as expected, except WSU wins then I think the semis would look like:

            No 1. Cincinnati vs No. 5 Memphis
            No 2. Houston vs No. 6 Wichita

            So what does Kenpom show as the percent chance of us beating Houston?

            How about Cincinnati?

            Those are three super tough games: UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. That's fo sho!
            KenPom doesn't have those available, but looking at games left to be played led me to these guesses:

            UCF 32%
            Houston 22%
            Cincy 28%

            So roughly a 2% chance of winning those three games consecutively.
            "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming
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            • Rocky Mountain Shock
              #24.1
              Rocky Mountain Shock commented
              March 7, 2019, 11:41 PM
              Editing a comment
              So you're telling me there's a chance!
              • Likes 3
          • #25
            Originally posted by newshock1234 View Post
            assuming we made it to the title game, would we rather play cinci on a neutral court or play memphis on their home court?
            I would guess it's a push, but I'm honestly not sure.
            "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

            Comment

            • #26
              Penny or not, we just don't match up well against Memphis. I'd take Cincy or UH over them.

              Comment

              • #27
                Get us to the semi's and lets have some fun being the underdog again!!
                "When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!
                • Likes 4

                Comment

                • #28
                  Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post

                  KenPom doesn't have those available, but looking at games left to be played led me to these guesses:

                  UCF 32%
                  Houston 22%
                  Cincy 28%

                  So roughly a 2% chance of winning those three games consecutively.
                  That's some Han Solo odds right there! Is it easy to compare what would it look like if you were Cincy and you had to take on: UConn, Memphis, Wichita?

                  Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!
                  • Likes 1

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                  • #29
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                    • Likes 4

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                    • #30
                      Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
                      Team Current Projected Outcome
                      Houston 14-2 15-3 lose to cin; beat smu
                      Cincinnati 14-2 15-3 lose to ucf; beat hou
                      UCF 12-4 14-4 beat cin and temple
                      Temple 11-5 11-7 lose to conn and ucf
                      Memphis 10-7 11-7 beat tulsa
                      Wichita 9-8 10-8 beat tulane
                      South Florida 8-9 9-9 beat smu
                      Tulsa 8-9 8-10 lose to memphis
                      UConn 5-11 7-11 beat temple and ecu
                      SMU 5-11 5-13 lose to hou and usf
                      East Carolina 3-14 3-15 lose to conn
                      Tulane 0-17 0-18 lose to ict
                      Interesting that Sagarin got the outcomes of the last few games of the top four wrong, but probably not that surprising because a lot of them were marginal.
                      Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

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