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Cincinnati Freshman Justin Jenifer: .362 FG / .333 3pt% / 2.17 A/TO
Cincinnati Senior Justin Jenifer: .455 FG / .443 3pt% / 4.57 A/TO
Cincinnati Senior Justin Jenifer: .455 FG / .443 3pt% / 4.57 A/TO
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If you want to get excited about next year, go on YouTube and look up Teddy Allen’s West Virginia big 12 highlight games.Comment
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Everyone of the new guys will be greatly improved both in their mental makeup and physically. Some of these new guys still have baby fat on them. Marshall has grown them as fast as he could without breaking them.
Teddy will give WSU three reliable scorers next year. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one or two more players get added.Comment
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A 6th or 7th place finish this year is going to happen. With 9 new players and our 2 seniors, I think 6/7 is a fair finish. As it stands, we will have 3 new faces next season with the reality of probably 2 more. I just don't see a future for Rod Brown and Ricky Torres. Brown is a man without a position. He is too small for a 4 and not skilled enough to play the 3. He can't shoot and he can't create. Torres has shown zero ability to shoot from distance. He has shown glimpses of a mid-range shooting touch, but at his size and lack of speed and quickness, there is little opportunities for him to capitalize on this. Although he is a good ball handler, he is slow with the ball. He can't separate himself from the defender. He is not fast or quick enough on defense to log enough minutes to be in the regular rotation next season. The best part of his game is his vision for the offense. He is about the only guard that can find the right open guy consistently, but it is not enough to justify his existence unfortunately. The talent curve of current players and incomers are just too great for Torres to overcome to help this program compete at this level.
The natural curve for improvement for Burton, Stevenson, Dennis, Jaime, Mit, Chandler and Udeze, in addition to Gordon, Etienne and Fernandez and the other 2 newcomers, will allow the Shockers to compete to finish 3/4 in the AAC. This has a chance to qualify for the big dance next season.Comment
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I'd like to see a Juco or transfer 4 at minimum. If we sign 2 guys I want the 2nd guy to be a lights out shooter.Comment
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How about a "shooter maker"? We have a maker in Teddy, but not one that shoots, particularly from the 3. We need a real sniper. I'm not sure that the current crop for next year's class has anyone in that category, either.
Edit: I think DD is turning out to be a quality shooter for this year's class, but on paper, I'm not as sure about next year's class at this time. ES and JB could turn out to be quality shooters, but that's putting the cart a little ahead of the horse at this point. We need to be able to spread the other teams' defense.Last edited by ShockTalk; February 25, 2019, 08:16 PM.
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If you look at the history of how Marshall develops a player (using KenPom rating)
4 Year Players Improvement
Frosh-Soph: +7.4%
Soph-Jr: +3.9%
Jr-Sr: -0.2%
Juco Transfers
They are what they are (+0.4%). Though u can divide them up into 2 groups - those that get better, those who get worse.
9 players Offensive rating decreased (-5.8%)
8 players Offensive rating increased (+7.9%)
Offensive Projections
2019: 105.7
2020: 107.6. (If JE be the +10% improvement type guy then you could add +1)
2021: 115.1
2022: 114.9
Historically, the Defensive improvement averages are -2.7%, best year improvement of -5.2% was achieved (Fred/Ron senior year).
Defensive Projections
2019: 99.7 (93rd)
2020: 97.5 (56th)
2021: 95.6 (37th)
2022: 93.7 (25th)
AdjEM
2019: +60 (Ranked 105)
2020: 10.1 (Ranked 68) [if JE is the +10%, WSU could be as high as 11.1 (Ranked 61st)
2021: 19.5 (Ranked 25)
2022: 21.2 (Ranked 17)
Conclusions
WSU is not likely to be an NCAA tournament team until 2021 if historical patterns are followed.
WSU offensively only projects to be +2.8% better next year (loss of McDuffy tempers the improvements). This projection includes Teddy's possible contribution and does not account for any recruits contributions.
The WSU defensive rating of 99.7, actually the 4th worst in the Marshall ERA. If WSU is to exceed these expectations, I think there is where you will need to see the biggest improvement. To be a Top 40 team requires AdjEM of ~ +16.0.Last edited by SB Shock; February 25, 2019, 07:51 PM.Comment
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No offense to those providing all the statistics/percentages etc but I trust what I SEE and my
basketball sense and I sense improvement next year. Center position is strong now and will
probably be even better next season offensively, defensively and on the boards. I am not at
all worried about replacing MM's 19 ppg. TA, DD and ES will all average 10-12 ppg. Not at
all worried about replacing SHJ's offensive numbers - that should be easy. JB will be
improved at PG and if one of the freshmen earns significant PT or earns the starting role then
all the better cause JB will be tough to beat out. DD and ES both are going to be solid
wing three point threats - mark my words. Just like DD it will probably take DG 2/3 of a season
to get comfortable but once he does he could be another DD but a little bigger. By this time
next season I think we will have as good a chance to win the auto berth as anyone and maybe
even an at large. Would be nice if ES grew a couple inches and DG grew an inch and gained 20 pounds.Comment
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Here are some facts for you.Originally posted by wufan View Post
Plus Minus Season Total (per shockernet)
JE 128
AM -21
Plus Minus per 40 min (per shockernet)
JE 10.6
AM -4.2
Defensive rating per 100 possessions (per sport-reference.com)
JE 93.4
AM 100.5
lower is better
Percentile defensive rank per synergy
JE 90th percentile
AM 9th Percentile.
Foul committed per 40 min (per KenPom)
JE 6.5
AM 6.8
Defensive rebounding percentage (Per KenPom)
JE 27.9% ranked 23rd nationally
AM 17.5%
Block Percentage (per KenPom)
JE 10.2% ranked 23rd nationality
AM 6.8%
We are nearly 15 points better per 40 mins when JE is on the floor. AM is a slightly better offensive player than JE but by just about any measure AM is a terrible defender. Don't get blinded by his points and FG% he is the Enes Kanter of our team. I believe JE is a fringe, 10 day contract type of NBA player especially if he continues to develop his outside shot. AM is a fringe situational AAC player.Comment
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AM is a good matchup against certain teams, and a terrible matchup against others. For this reason, he has value as he gives us flexibility at the post when we need it.Comment
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I don’t care what the stats say. JE is a far superior offensive player not less than AM.Originally posted by 12eagle View Post
AM is on a learning curve and is figuring out how to use his huge body. He will improve a lot IMO..... more than Marshall’s big men historical stats.
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Why are we even arguing or justifying who is the better player? Jamie is clearly ahead of AM, but Jamie also needs a backup who can contribute some good things. AM has a place on this team and is better than most thought he would be.
It always seems to be an either/or conversation about those two which is not overly productive.Comment
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I think that the differing styles of play benefits each one. JE is usually more effective but AM is being more like a "rock" than he used to. Early in the year, he was just moved around by more aggressive players but he has toughened up during the year.Comment
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Along those lines, it'll be interesting to see what moves the staff makes to bring in the next project. We just have JE one more season and then a senior AM and ? Udeze? If he's healthy. Nobody else on the radar that I'm aware of. So 2020-2021 could be very interesting if Udeze continues to struggle with the shoulder.
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