2018 General NCAA Tournament Games Thread

[MadaboutWu]

As to Kung Wu's question: 1 seeds, as jazztrane kind of points out, will usually have K-State's path to the elite 8, so K-State's run probably isn't that unusual. All it takes to replicate is a lowish seed advancing on the other side of the regional bracket to a 1.

[shoxlax]

Exactly. Nobody outside of WSU and Creighton were able to sustain success and remain nationally relevant.

UNI fans were sure UNI was going to take over and dominate and they have been irrelevant the last two years, including a cellar year this year. Redturd fans were all excited because they rose up last year and won same games (still didn’t make the dance lol) and thought this was the beginning of their dominance. Result: .500 record and no postseason. Now Loyola fans I’m sure will clamor that they’re on the map, but will they sustain it? Of course not. WSU and CU both proved they continued to succeed with different classes of players. Once Loyola loses some of their magic this year, they’ll be irrelevant just like the rest of them.

The Redturds are so irrelevant I left them off the punchable face poll

[ShockerFever]

While the MVC seems destined to be a one bid league, Loyola may be ready to assume our spot as the dominant team in the league. They have a good recruiting class coming in this fall including a 4 star power forward This run should do nothing but help future recruiting.

And here we go.

[Topshock]

??? Where we going, someplace fun I hope!

[ShockerDropOut]

I will be cheering for KSU. I have no hard feelings against them and understand Weber wanting to keep his job and not get spanked by both of the other D1 schools in the state. Trust me, he wouldn't play KU if he could help it. That aside, I have a daughter and son-in-law that are both KSU alums. My money and my daughter went to KSU, good enough for me.

[swellafelon]

Hey SHOCKvalue Dilly Dilly!

Go to the Bud Light Twitter account. There's a short video they made about LolLoyola you might find amusing. (or not)

[ShockerFever]

Hey SHOCKvalue Dilly Dilly!

Go to the Bud Light Twitter account. There's a short video they made about LolLoyola you might find amusing. (or not)

Yikes. Still here? Does LOLoyola not have a board?

Let me guess. It’s basically just a 5 poster circle jerk?

[Kung Wu]

KState has had a relatively easy path, but not easier than most 1s or 2s. And FAR from the easiest path in existence, at least so far. That dubious honors goes to 2016 Syracuse, the luckiest team in the 100 years of the sport. They literally should not have been in the tournament (worst RPI by about 15 points to make it), and rewarded with a 10 seed, presumably because the committee got extremely drunk and started looking at the wrong sheet.

They started off with 7 seed Dayton, whose KenPom score was closer to a 13 seed. Then they lucked out thanks to 15 seed Middle Tennessee knocking off Michigan State, letting them play versus the 119th best team in the country. And in the Sweet Sixteen, yep still wearing white thanks to 11 seed Gonzaga's run. That is a combined seed of 33 to the Elite 8, compared to KState's 29 or a normal one seeds 28-30.

For the record, that year we had an RPI half of Syracuse's and a KenPom score 20 ranks higher. We played a play-in game against the #25 KenPom team (11 seed), then a Round of 64 vs the #19 KenPom team (6 seed), then lost in the Round of 32 to the #15 KenPom team (3 seed). Our route to the Sweet 16 was far harder than Syracuse's route to the Elite 8.

And if we would have continued we'd have played the best team in the tournament in the Sweet Sixteen (2 seed Villanova) and then played the third best team (1 seed KU) to go to the Final Four. Our total seed path in the tournament (not counting play-in) would be 12, Syracuse's 34. Our total KenPom would be 38, Syracuse 205.

Meanwhile, most 1 seed paths are pretty pathetic, with the exception of the South region in 2014, where our KenPom path after game 1 was 13 > 1 > 12. For comparison, after KU advanced to the Round of 32 they played 18, 39, 53 or a seed path of 47 (16, 9, 12, 11). Far and away easier than KState.

Assuming your numbers are correct, Syracuse's "combined seed" to get to the Final Four was 34.

K-State's "combined seed" to get to the Final Four will be 40!

[Kung Wu]

KState has had a relatively easy path, but not easier than most 1s or 2s.

...

Meanwhile, most 1 seed paths are pretty pathetic, with the exception of the South region in 2014, where our KenPom path after game 1 was 13 > 1 > 12.

Which is why I said 5-or-lower seed (meaning 16 thru 5 seed -- maybe that was confusing). This HAS to be close to being the easiest path for any 5-or-lower seed to the Final Four.

[jdshock]

Which is why I said 5-or-lower seed (meaning 16 thru 5 seed -- maybe that was confusing). This HAS to be close to being the easiest path for any 5-or-lower seed to the Final Four.

I dunno all the fancy math KenPom puts into his ranks, so I'm sticking with summation of seeds and summation of KenPom scores.

According to that earlier KenPom article, 2012 UK had the #10 easiest path to the Final Four. That path took them through a 16 seed, an 8 seed, a 4 seed, and a 3 seed. Seed total = 31. Those same teams had (end of season) KenPom ranks of 193, 26, 9, and 13. KenPom total = 244.

KSU will have to go through an 8 seed, 16 seed, 5 seed, and an 11 seed. Seed total = 40. Those same teams are currently ranked on KenPom as 30, 166, 17, and 34. KenPom total = 247.

Of the top 10 on KenPom's blog, there were two #2 seeds listed and the rest were one seeds. KSU appears to, from these sample calculations, to have a slightly easier path than UK did. It would be really hard to believe there could be a 5 seed or lower that had an easier path if this KSU path really ranks in (or close to) the top 10 easiest paths of all time. In fact, it seems likely that this could be the easiest path for any seed that wasn't a one or two.

[ShockingButTrue]

I'll go with the Valley in this one. That's where the smart money's at.

[FlyingWheat]

Interesting article by 538, tournament wins vs expected.

Coaches of Note (vs expected)
1. Boeheim (+9.7) (ugh)
2. Izzo (+9.2)
16. Ollie (+3.8)
32. Tubby (+2.2)
82. HC3G (+1.0)**
188. Self (+0.1)
377. Weber (-0.2)
538. McDermott (-1.6)
540. Mick Cronin (-1.6)
550. Tony Bennett (-2.6)
551. Kelvin Sampson (-2.8)
559. Fran Dunphy (-4.1) (very last in the list)

Also of note, the coach for Marshall U with only his games this year had 0.3 expected wins. Which means before that game, HC3G would have been at like +1.8, or about 45th.

[Eric]

Almost time to get a little liquored up and swear at the TV!

[pinstripers]

For as awful as the Beakers were in the fall, they are pretty good now. **** em.

[ShockerPrez]

I hate KU, they make me root for teams like Duke...

[slyp3st]

If I was Bob Huggins I would want to slap these refs. Complete one sided calling.