WSU Versus Marshall NCAA Dance Predictions and Pregame Discussions

[El_Wu]

We will beat Marshall. And we will beat WVU. Now Villanova is another story. WVU has loses to Texas, OKST, and of course KU. But if things go our way and officiating is decent then we will get past both those teams.

[FadedCrown]

Villanova is getting bounced by Collin Sexton

[WuShock Reaper]

"NCAA Tournament 2018 Preview: East Regional loaded with superstar-level talent" - CBS Sports

by Matt Norlander
Posted: 03/12/18

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2018-preview-east-regional-loaded-with-superstar-level-talent/

A talent-rich region has six teams that rationally should expect to make it out of this bracket

he East is frequently the toughest region the NCAA Tournament because it's the most populated part of the country with reliably great programs. This year? It's really good again, but probably not the best.

It's very interesting, though. Let's get right to it. Here's what to keep in mind as you can through the top right corner of the bracket.

Three initial thoughts
1. There is a ton of talent in this region.

As you'll see below, in listing the six best players in this region, I didn't even get to include Villanova's Mikal Bridges, Butler's Kelan Martin, Purdue's Carsen Edwards, Wichita State's Landry Shamet or Arkansas' Daniel Gafford. Murray State's got two really good guards, and Florida's not lean on talent either. Team-wise i think this is the second-best region overall. Player-to-player? I think it's the deepest.

2. This is the deepest region for teams that can get to the Final Four.

Villanova will be favored to win the region, but I think Purdue's basically almost as good as Villanova. Texas Tech as a No. 3 is going to foolishly be undervalued. West Virginia is the strongest No. 5 seed in the field, and Gregg Marshall's already coached Wichita State to a Final Four. The Shockers are a quality No. 4. Florida's the strongest No. 6, too. I legitimately would not be surprised if any of those teams got to San Antonio. This region can be chaotic -- and glorious.

3. It has the biggest toss-ups of all the 8/9 and 7/10 games.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama is the kind of 8/9 game you convince yourself you'll pick incorrectly. I'm on the Hokies, so congrats to the Crimson Tide on getting to the weekend. Further down in the bracket, No. 7 Arkansas has a fascinating style matchup with 10th-seeded Butler. The Hogs are longer and leaner than Butler, but the Bulldogs rate better in all the new-age metrics.

Bold prediction:
Texas Tech is in a one-possession game with Stephen F. Austin with 40 seconds to go

I like Tech to win, but SFA has enough dudes to make that a compelling game, I think. It's an off-the-radar matchup, but that intra-Texas battle seems destined for a 67-64 type of ending.

Best potential matchups
1. Villanova-West Virginia, Sweet 16

2. Villanova-Purdue, Elite Eight


3. Murray State-Wichita State, second round

Upsets to watch for
1. Murray State over West Virginia. The Racers have good enough guards with Jonathan Stark and Ja Morant to pull this off. WVU is tough, underseeded and a brutal matchup, but Murray State's the best 12 seed in this field.

2. St. Bonaventure over Florida. The Bonnies would have a tougher time against UCLA than Florida, in my opinion. Given the guard play of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley, Bonaventure's got a good shot at continuing the trend: every year since 2011, when the First Four was introduced, at least one team to come out of Dayton has made it to the second round.

3. Wichita State over Villanova. The Shockers have the starting five to contend with the Wildcats. Villanova's had an unusual feast-or-famine run in the NCAAs over the past decade. When it's made the tournament (every season except 2011-12), it's either reached the final weekend or lost in the first two rounds every time since 2009. That pattern breaks this year. Villanova makes it to the second weekend and then gets stopped by a Wichita State team that ironically enters this year's tournament seeded higher -- at No. 4 -- than in recent years when it was a double digit seed and had many more backers. ..."

[CBB_Fan]

Typically the underdog has better odds if are extremely slow rather than vice versa; it is easier for a good team to bungle 2-3 important possessions in a 62 possession ballgame than 4-5 in an 85 possession game. A slow game makes the game a lot more variable, as each steal or 3 becomes a much larger swing.

For instance, during VCU's Final Four run they slowed the game down to 64 possessions on average outside of their overtime win vs Florida State. George Mason's 2006 run was slightly faster at 66 possessions per game, about where our 2013 streak was; both of these teams were ranked high in KenPom before their run and probably needed less variability to win. UConn showed that this formula works even for unlikely champion runs for good teams.

At 74.6 possessions per game, Marshall is going to have to hit a lot of 3s and force a lot of TOs to succeed on the standard upset formula. Look at 11-seed Xavier last year. They were able to dominate Florida State 91-66 in the round of 32 in a 67 possession, but only off the backs of 65% 3PT shooting (FSU shot 4-21 from 3). To go to the Elite 8, they had to slow the game down to 61 possessions vs Arizona. Arizona shot 11 more 3s to hit 1 more, and after pulling ahead to within 4 off a 3 with 2:40 to go Arizona missed 4 times in a row and turned the ball over for a narrow victory.

High tempo teams can pull off an upset, but like the above 4-21 performance from FSU it usually takes the favorite getting 3-happy and not making many, leading to a lot of empty possessions. See WVU vs Stephan F. Austin, where WVU lost after going 3-16 (and also giving up 22 TOs).

The recipe for the Shockers is not to be suckered into a high variance game, where an off night shooting could keep the game close and a few late game mistakes could turn a close game into a trip home. Throw the ball into Shaq early and often, and take only very high quality 3s. Jon Elmore is going to play 38-40 minutes and will probably get a lot of points, but accept his 25-35 and try to play a complete game against the rest of their squad; if he gets 30 on 25 shots and the rest of the team is held in check this will be a Shocker victory.

[forevershockerfan]

IMHO SHJ is the very best we have at going around our foes. It is what awaits and adjusts to him after he goes by them that was causing him issues and ultimately playing time. The Oklahoma big adjusted and caught his shots in mid-air twice. Even so, once SMJ learns this complex System and kicks it to the 3-point opportunity or a pass to whomever got left alone, or even a strong head and shoulder fake before going up for the shot would be nice. Easy to see it from my rocking chair, but harder for players to achieve it on the hardwood at this level against the best teams.

[im4wsu]

KenPom 91-80 - 84%
Sagarin has us 13.6
RealTime RPI 77-70
Nolan Resid 90-82 - 76%
Nolan ELO 91-80 98%

[ShockerPhi]

As long as we don't let Marshall get confident early, we should win. All I want to see is us guarding them beyond the perimeter. That's all I ask.

We Are Marshall - 74
We Have Marshall - 89

[Ixiah]

Rank in Rebounding Margin:

Wichita State - 3rd
Marshall - 324th

WSU *should* be able to exploit that.

[Shocker Mama]

I am predicting g that RK sets a new personal rebounding record.

[Shox The Revenant]

It appears Marshall spreads you out, will get Elmore open with high ball screens where he'll jack up a three or drive to the basket and dish it back out. I'm not worried about a run and gun type of game, we're deep enough to handle that. Look for Elmore to play 40 minutes. Checking out his stats, he's played 38-40 minutes in 25 games this year. I seriously doubt he'll be yanked in the most important game of their season. 50 percent of Elmore's and the other guard, Burks' field goal attempts this year were beyond the three line. The ONLY way Marshall beats us is if they shoot 45 percent or better from the three point line and make 15 or more of them.

Their big man, Penava is 6'9" and weighs 214 lbs, will not do any damage down low against Shaq. In fact, the Shox need to just give Shaq the ball all day as they are going to get into foul trouble trying to contain him. They sub Williams to give Penava a break, he's a 6'9" 217 lb freshman Shaq will utterly destroy. Marshall has a puncher's chance due to the sheer volume of threes they take, and again if they are hot from beyond the arc, they can pull the upset.

[Stickboy46]

It appears Marshall spreads you out, will get Elmore open with high ball screens where he'll jack up a three or drive to the basket and dish it back out. I'm not worried about a run and gun type of game, we're deep enough to handle that. Look for Elmore to play 40 minutes. Checking out his stats, he's played 38-40 minutes in 25 games this year. I seriously doubt he'll be yanked in the most important game of their season. 50 percent of Elmore's and the other guard, Burks' field goal attempts this year were beyond the three line. The ONLY way Marshall beats us is if they shoot 45 percent or better from the three point line and make 15 or more of them.

Their big man, Penava is 6'9" and weighs 214 lbs, will not do any damage down low against Shaq. In fact, the Shox need to just give Shaq the ball all day as they are going to get into foul trouble trying to contain him. They sub Williams to give Penava a break, he's a 6'9" 217 lb freshman Shaq will utterly destroy. Marshall has a puncher's chance due to the sheer volume of threes they take, and again if they are hot from beyond the arc, they can pull the upset.

One stat of interest ... Penava averages 4.1 blocks a game .. Top shot blocker in the nation.

[Cdizzle]

Leads to a LOT of offensive rebound opportunities, even when successful with the initial block. This game is all about rebounding and 3PT%.

[shockerfan]

Do we know if they play mostly zone or man?

[AZ Shocker]

The Elmore guy doesn't seem too quick. Since they like to spread the court for his isolation shots...could should the taller Duff and Brown share guarding him? Conner would likely get lit up guarding Elmore.

[kcshocker11]

94 to 82 Shockers!

[newshock1234]

This sure beats playing Dayton or Arizona in the first round

[ShockingButTrue]

I think Huggs needs to worry about Murray State.

The real MSU. Upset special.

[quibbl.me]

They'll definitely beat Marshall, but how far can they actually go? I picked them to make it to the Elite 8 in our bracket challenge on Quibbl. Our contest also lets you predict things you normally can't, like which conference will win the most games and will there be a buzzer beater in the first round.