WSU vs SMU Game Thread

[ShockerFever]

If we're a 1 seed, I really don't care what happens in the conference tournament. We would've done enough damage by then that we're not dropping below a 4 seed. Works for me.

[Cdizzle]

Getting back to the defense....

I'm not espousing that WSU is a Top 20 defensive team, but some food for thought before you commence wrist-slashing:

Prior to the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 24/104 (23.1%!!!!!) from 3. None were above 25%.
During the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 7-12 (58.3%) from 3.

Now, we can discuss that WSU's defense isn't particularly stout. That's fine. We can talk about not guarding the 3PT line closely enough, or ending up behind the play on help and giving up open 3s. That's fair. We can say poor defense leads to higher shooting percentages than season averages. Great.

But it's also fair to point out that those 4 guys don't shoot 58% in their dreams, regardless of the defense they are facing. Additionally, noting that the group was shooting between 14% and 24% on the season with 59/29/7/9 3PA, respectively, it's probably fair to think that chasing these guys off the 3PT line was specifically NOT a part of the scouting report, nor should it have been.

[BOBB]

If every team you play mystically shoots 15% over their average, maybe it's not mystical at all. Maybe the shot between 14% and 24% because they were chased off the the 3pt line. Tough to argue with our record, but defense has been just good enough to win most nights.

[shoxlax]

Be prepared for both LS and MM to be gone after this year. In other words, don’t be shocked if it happens.

[Steeleshocker]

I'll be shocked. Both have durability and injury concerns.

[BOBB]

Admittedly I haven't watched as many non-Shocker games as I would have liked, but if they are both top-25 draft prospects then this is a weak draft year. I do think they are both NBA talent, btw.

[jdshock]

Getting back to the defense....

I'm not espousing that WSU is a Top 20 defensive team, but some food for thought before you commence wrist-slashing:

Prior to the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 24/104 (23.1%!!!!!) from 3. None were above 25%.
During the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 7-12 (58.3%) from 3.

Now, we can discuss that WSU's defense isn't particularly stout. That's fine. We can talk about not guarding the 3PT line closely enough, or ending up behind the play on help and giving up open 3s. That's fair. We can say poor defense leads to higher shooting percentages than season averages. Great.

But it's also fair to point out that those 4 guys don't shoot 58% in their dreams, regardless of the defense they are facing. Additionally, noting that the group was shooting between 14% and 24% on the season with 59/29/7/9 3PA, respectively, it's probably fair to think that chasing these guys off the 3PT line was specifically NOT a part of the scouting report, nor should it have been.

I've also been thinking about the fact that defense, way more than offense, is just a measure of effort. Guys like Fred, Baker, and Cotton just didn't take nights off, and that's what made us so lethal on the defensive end. This is the same team as last year, and our defense is significantly worse. There's no explanation other than (1) some of our guys are hurt in ways that make them less athletic/capable of defending; (2) our guys are putting in less effort; (3) our game plan on the defensive end has been worse; (4) other teams have gotten remarkably lucky against us; or (5) some combination of the above. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will be able to turn it up on defense as the season is ending.

I think it's probably wishful thinking to believe they could still be a top 10 defensive team in any given game, but I have no trouble believing they could still be at least a top 30-50 defensive team in any given game. Combine that with what could be the best offensive team of HCGM's tenure, and you've got a darn good team.

[BOBB]

Where was freedom of movement during our Cincy and Houston games? They kicked our asses all over the place. Most games I've seen this year have been pretty physical.

[wusphlash]

I'm not saying we're as good defensively as the past, we're not. JD listed some factors and I added one more not excluding the others.

How many times have you seen officials show arm bar or two hands on the driver as the foul call? How many times have you seen Gregg throw his hands up making a point to a player. Freedom of movement is not the only factor but it is a factor when comparing to previous teams. Personally I think failure to communicate and execution with rotation are also factors.

And don't point out two games like officiating is consistent from game to game. It's not even consistent half to half.

[1979Shocker]

If this same team, which did so well defensively last year in the MVC, was playing in the MVC this year, their defensive rating would be a lot better. So the fact that our defense seems to have dropped off this year, can mostly be the result of better competition.

[pinstripers]

Be prepared for both LS and MM to be gone after this year. In other words, don’t be shocked if it happens.

I'll be shocked if either are back..........

[ShockerFever]

I'll be shocked if either are back..........

That makes me feel more optimistic, given your track record on this site.

[Shockersarelife]

I hope we go on a run to the national championship led by MM and LS and they both leave...

[mjbaker84]

Be prepared for both LS and MM to be gone after this year. In other words, don’t be shocked if it happens.

Landry I could see leaving if he gets a top 25 draft potential. I don't see MM moving that high up with his injury concern from this year as well.

[Rlh04d]

I don't see how anyone could predict MM right now -- whether he comes back or not will entirely depend on NCAA tournament performance, IMO. If he has a breakout tournament (like Early vs Kentucky), he's gone. If he's a productive but nothing outstanding sixth man, I expect him back. He was far more productive last season and wasn't ready to go pro, so I don't see how he could be predicted to go pro now without showing something new. Statistically he's regressed and added injury concerns. He needs a breakout tournament.

[another shocker]

wsu played pretty well. give smu some credit.. they shot out of their ass again. no surprise. look for ucf to have their game of the year this thursday.

[Rlh04d]

Getting back to the defense....

I'm not espousing that WSU is a Top 20 defensive team, but some food for thought before you commence wrist-slashing:

Prior to the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 24/104 (23.1%!!!!!) from 3. None were above 25%.
During the game vs. WSU, Landrum/Douglas/Whitt/Agau were a combined 7-12 (58.3%) from 3.

Now, we can discuss that WSU's defense isn't particularly stout. That's fine. We can talk about not guarding the 3PT line closely enough, or ending up behind the play on help and giving up open 3s. That's fair. We can say poor defense leads to higher shooting percentages than season averages. Great.

But it's also fair to point out that those 4 guys don't shoot 58% in their dreams, regardless of the defense they are facing. Additionally, noting that the group was shooting between 14% and 24% on the season with 59/29/7/9 3PA, respectively, it's probably fair to think that chasing these guys off the 3PT line was specifically NOT a part of the scouting report, nor should it have been.

I was thinking pretty similarly to BOBB until I decided to look it up -- on the year, we've allowed our opponents to shoot almost exactly their average, all in all. If you just look at the average game to game versus their season averages, our opponents have shot .05% better than their average. If you limit it to AAC games, we're allowing our conference opponents to shoot a bit less than 1% better over their season average against us.

What I find interesting is, when playing against the top half of the AAC, we're holding opponents to ~5.5% less than their season average from three -- and when playing the bottom half, we're allowing opponents to score ~6% better than their season average.

That same trend seems consistent with the nonconference -- the teams that lit us up from 3 relative to season %s (Cal, San Diego St, Arizona State, and FGCU) were teams we were expected to handily beat. Yet every team that was expected to test us we held well below their season %s -- Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and even Oklahoma, all shot at least 4.8% worse than their season average.

Maybe it's not so much that we're bad on defense, as selectively good on defense? It's interesting to me that not one even close to NCAA tournament team we've played this year has shot well from the perimeter against us, despite so many other teams scorching us from there. SMU's probably the only team that could have had a prayer at the tournament (if they'd stayed healthy) who shot better than their season average from 3 against us.

[Rlh04d]

Or if you want to break opponents up into quadrants:

Quadrant 1: -8.50%
Quadrant 2: -2.18%
Quadrant 3: +9.94%
Quadrant 4: +3.37%

That's pretty glaring to me, and doesn't say bad defense so much as over-confident, maybe lazy defense. Only one quadrant one opponent (@Temple +3.5%) shot better from 3 than their season average against us -- yet every single quadrant three opponent did, as did four of six quadrant four opponents.

[Rlh04d]

And a relatively similar trend for FG% as a whole:

Quadrant 1: -3.32%
Quadrant 2: -2.21%
Quadrant 3: +2.20%
Quadrant 4: -4.63%

Only one Quadrant 1 team shot above season FG%: Cinci at +2.4%. Only three Quadrant 2 teams did, and ND wouldn't be in that category if their season % reflected the healthy team we played. Only two Quadrant 3 teams didn't: Tulsa and FGCU, who are just shy of 50% FG% overall.

[BOBB]

Nice stat work. It just feels like everybody is going off, but really only the scrubs are going off relative to their average. Very interesting. Thanks.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

I was thinking pretty similarly to BOBB until I decided to look it up -- on the year, we've allowed our opponents to shoot almost exactly their average, all in all. If you just look at the average game to game versus their season averages, our opponents have shot .05% better than their average. If you limit it to AAC games, we're allowing our conference opponents to shoot a bit less than 1% better over their season average against us.

What I find interesting is, when playing against the top half of the AAC, we're holding opponents to ~5.5% less than their season average from three -- and when playing the bottom half, we're allowing opponents to score ~6% better than their season average.

That same trend seems consistent with the nonconference -- the teams that lit us up from 3 relative to season %s (Cal, San Diego St, Arizona State, and FGCU) were teams we were expected to handily beat. Yet every team that was expected to test us we held well below their season %s -- Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor, Oklahoma St, and even Oklahoma, all shot at least 4.8% worse than their season average.

Maybe it's not so much that we're bad on defense, as selectively good on defense? It's interesting to me that not one even close to NCAA tournament team we've played this year has shot well from the perimeter against us, despite so many other teams scorching us from there. SMU's probably the only team that could have had a prayer at the tournament (if they'd stayed healthy) who shot better than their season average from 3 against us.

That's usually a sign of a young, immature, inexperienced team. But we have six seniors. I don't know what to think.

[boltforge]

That's usually a sign of a young, immature, inexperienced team. But we have six seniors. I don't know what to think.

Every now and then we see teams that tend to play at the level of the competition. This seems to be one of those teams.

I remember a comment after the Cincinnati game in the Shamet interview that the Shockers went for the win. The tone was that they typically do not go out and "win it". And I see that. A lot. The Notre Dame game was the first perfect example of waiting for the win and it burned them. This SMU game was a second example as well.

[Cdizzle]

Every now and then we see teams that tend to play at the level of the competition. This seems to be one of those teams.

I remember a comment after the Cincinnati game in the Shamet interview that the Shockers went for the win. The tone was that they typically do not go out and "win it". And I see that. A lot. The Notre Dame game was the first perfect example of waiting for the win and it burned them. This SMU game was a second example as well.

In what way was the SMU game an example of that? They had a 17 point lead on the road with 1:37 remaining. I would say they went out and won it.

[Walker]

I think it was a great win. SMU can just flat out shoot and it really felt like the officiating helped them close the gap the last couple of minutes.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

Every now and then we see teams that tend to play at the level of the competition. This seems to be one of those teams.

I remember a comment after the Cincinnati game in the Shamet interview that the Shockers went for the win. The tone was that they typically do not go out and "win it". And I see that. A lot. The Notre Dame game was the first perfect example of waiting for the win and it burned them. This SMU game was a second example as well.

Don't forget Temple. We practically handed that one to them on a silver platter, and then we asked them if they wanted dessert on us.