New Gallup Poll Shows Dominant Political Group

[SubGod22]

Poll: Conservatives Most Dominant Political Group Among Americans

It'd be nice if we actually had some Conservative candidates to vote for. Too bad both the Republicans and Democrats pretty much suck and keep moving to be more liberal. Hopefully things will change...

[Maggie]

Sub – there are some bright spots – depending upon where you live.

For example, in New York’s 23rd Congressional District Doug Hoffman, a Republican running on the Conservative Party ticket, is polling well in a three way race against Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava. This is a special election to replace John McHugh, a Republican, who resigned to become secretary of the Army in the Obama administration. A lot of party insiders, GOP and Democrat, on a national level are watching this race closely.

Frankly, Scozzafava reminds me a lot of John Lindsay, the former mayor of New York – and I don’t mean that as a compliment. As a general rule, I would argue that a vote for a third-party candidate is a throwaway vote and could drain support away from the “second best” alternative. In this case, however, given that this is a special election (meaning whoever wins will have to run again in 2010) and Scozzafava’s political views if I lived in the 23rd I would support Hoffman with no reservations. In my judgment, whoever wins the race, Hoffman will get more votes than Scozzafava. If Owens wins, in other words, it will be Scozzafava who turned out to be the "spoiler."

For what it is worth, recent polls seem to show Scozzafava losing support. Owens is in the lead, but not by much. Hoffman could lose. But there’s also a substantial chance that he could win.

Marco Rubio is also gaining momentum in Florida.

[SubGod22]

I've kept some tabs on the 23rd as is much of the nation. It appears from afar that the the Republican candidate may actually be more liberal than the Democrat which is frightening. Hopefully Hoffman can continue to get more support. I've seen that the 23rd has more people who view themselves as conservative then not. However, too many people vote along party lines and that may bite Hoffman. Doesn't help that Newt has endorsed Scozzafava. I've heard Palin and Thompson have both thrown their support behind Hoffman though.

I haven't heard as much about what's going on in FL but I do hope Rubio continues his momentum and makes some noise.

Hopefully we'll start seeing more conservative candidates running in '10. I don't care if they're Republicans or some 3rd party. A message can be sent if we're given the opportunity to do so.

[Maggie]

Scozzafava is a disaster and Newt really needs to re-think his support for her.

She is not one of those "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" bi-swinger deals — not when she is pro-"stimulus", pro-cash-for-clunkers, and pro-card check. And it gets worse, beyond policy – I question her judgment. As I am sure you are aware, the fact that she called the police on a Weekly Standard reporter is strange enough but doubling down and calling the reporter a liar coupled with her subsequent effort to smear the guy as an unhinged, screaming loon is beyond the pale.

For me my objections to Scozzafava go well beyond policy differences; they are a matter of character. It's embarrassing when a candidate won't answer reasonable questions from reasonable press and her campaign attempts to smear them in order to cover up their mess.

The tea parties and town halls were a response not just to Obama but to the 2006/2008 GOP. If Scozzafava wins, it's a loss — a serious loss — for those voters who believe irresponsible spending by feckless federal mediocrities will deny future generations any shot at the American Dream. If Doug Hoffman wins, as I believe he can, great. But, if he doesn't and the seat falls to Owens, it will be a cautionary tale for party leaders who, as in the 23rd, make choices that confirm everything a disgruntled base thinks of them.

[RoyalShock]

If Hoffman doesn't win then it will show exactly why you won't see conservatives get elected, let alone run, for a lot of offices. Vote for the (R) to keep the (D) from winning because voting for anyone else is a "throwaway" vote.

Sorry, but I think the whole "throwaway" vote mentality is the enemy to getting Dems and neocons out and conservatives in. What we have is the result of voting pragmatically instead of principally. If we keep thinking short-term, we're doomed in the long-term.

[SubGod22]

If Hoffman doesn't win then it will show exactly why you won't see conservatives get elected, let alone run, for a lot of offices. Vote for the (R) to keep the (D) from winning because voting for anyone else is a "throwaway" vote.

Sorry, but I think the whole "throwaway" vote mentality is the enemy to getting Dems and neocons out and conservatives in. What we have is the result of voting pragmatically instead of principally. If we keep thinking short-term, we're doomed in the long-term.

Principles above party!!!

Considering that it seems like most Republicans running are moving farther and farther left they no longer represent many Americans. Throwing away your vote is voting for someone who doesn't represent you. Things will never change if we continue to vote for the lesser of two evils instead of voting on principle and trying to elect someone who will represent your beliefs and principles

[Maggie]

If Hoffman doesn't win then it will show exactly why you won't see conservatives get elected, let alone run, for a lot of offices. Vote for the (R) to keep the (D) from winning because voting for anyone else is a "throwaway" vote.

Sorry, but I think the whole "throwaway" vote mentality is the enemy to getting Dems and neocons out and conservatives in. What we have is the result of voting pragmatically instead of principally. If we keep thinking short-term, we're doomed in the long-term.

Principles above party!!!

Considering that it seems like most Republicans running are moving farther and farther left they no longer represent many Americans. Throwing away your vote is voting for someone who doesn't represent you. Things will never change if we continue to vote for the lesser of two evils instead of voting on principle and trying to elect someone who will represent your beliefs and principles

Look, I get frustrated too but you have to pick your battles.

Royal I disagree with your analysis of the 23rd. It depends on the vote count– a loss by Hoffman is not necessarily an indictment of a conservative candidate. Furthermore, as I noted above, a win by Owens also would send a good message. Quite frankly, I would argue that his success would and is helping recruit more conservatives to run for office. If Scozzafava wins, which doesn’t appear likely at this point, that is a problem.

Conservative still must operate within the system – that is a fact. An effective national third party is not a viable idea – despite the fact that it makes you and others feel better. A third party candidate in a local race is a different story. This is not the first time a Conservative party candidate has shaken up New York state politics.

You can’t demand perfection; but you can send a message to the GOP that you would like to see Republican candidates who represent, in large part, your values. Hoffman running a competitive race is one way to do it – keep in mind Hoffman, if he loses, will run for the seat in 2010 in the Republican primary.

[SubGod22]

If the Republicans will start running more conservative candidates I'm fine with that and may vote for them. But if the party continues to move left there is no way in hell I'll vote for those candidates and would hope other conservatives wouldn't either. Even if that means the Republican loses and the Dem gets the seat. At least I can go to sleep with a clear conscience knowing I voted for someone I could support.

Nothing will ever change if people continue to vote for any particular party over principles. I'm not completely throwing out the Republican party as an option but I have lost a lot of faith in them. They don't seem to stand by their own principles anymore. I can not respect that and will not vote for that type. Maybe a 3rd party isn't viable, but I think it could be with the right leadership and the continued leftward movement of the two crap parties we choose from now.

[Maggie]

This outfit is conservative and has endorsed Hoffman. Plus, the poll has a tiny sample size, and a big margin of error. Notwithstanding, it does reflect the trend that this race in the 23rd will come down to Hoffman or Owens.

Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23 - New CFG Poll shows Hoffman 31.3%, Owens 27.0%, Scozzafava 19.7%

[RoyalShock]

I simply disagree that conservatives have to submit to working within the current 2-party system when they don't have a party representing them. Honestly, what is wrong with a party revolution in the short-term if it means getting long-term gains?

The RINOs must go down and if the GOP goes down with 'em, fine.

Where we disagree, Maggie, is that you think (at least as far as I can understand) we can make gradual gains within the current GOP structure. I don't think gradually is going to get it. GOP leadership isn't going to wake up unless they get sent a serious message. That isn't going to happen by us picking our battles. A mass abandonment is what it's going to take, in my opinion. That either has to occur by rejecting RINOs in the primaries or voting for real conservatives in the general, even if it means a (D) wins.

We'll just have to continue agreeing to disagree.

After reading your last post, glad to see the conservatives there shedding their (R) blinders!

[WuDrWu]

Maggie, if the winning candidate gets less than 50% of the vote, is there a runoff election?

And to confirm, this election only covers the next 12 months (13 1/2 technically), yes?

[Maggie]

I simply disagree that conservatives have to submit to working within the current 2-party system when they don't have a party representing them. Honestly, what is wrong with a party revolution in the short-term if it means getting long-term gains?

The RINOs must go down and if the GOP goes down with 'em, fine.

Where we disagree, Maggie, is that you think (at least as far as I can understand) we can make gradual gains within the current GOP structure. I don't think gradually is going to get it. GOP leadership isn't going to wake up unless they get sent a serious message. That isn't going to happen by us picking our battles. A mass abandonment is what it's going to take, in my opinion. That either has to occur by rejecting RINOs in the primaries or voting for real conservatives in the general, even if it means a (D) wins.

We'll just have to continue agreeing to disagree.

After reading your last post, glad to see the conservatives there shedding their (R) blinders!

I think it is a bit disrespectful to assume most conservatives have “(R) blinders”. Party unity wise, I think Democrats take the cake. Heck – that goes for conformity/group think, etc…..period. For what it is worth, there are a lot of Republican's that have endorsed Hoffman.

Look - I just don’t think you have to blow up the system to change things – conservatives have to win…again. Starting in local races like NY-23. Marco Rubio in Florida is another example. When conservatives actually argue issues – they will win. Historically, conservatives have changed the GOP before and against much higher odds. The narrative I am talking about is a path that has been taken before.

[Maggie]

Maggie, if the winning candidate gets less than 50% of the vote, is there a runoff election?

And to confirm, this election only covers the next 12 months (13 1/2 technically), yes?

Without checking to confirm, I am 99% sure there would be no run-off.

As for your second question, NY-23 is a special election. The winner will still have to run in 2010 in the regular election.

[SubGod22]

There wouldn't be a run-off. The winner wins. At least that's what I've heard from a couple different sources.

[Maggie]

I think this article in Real Clear Politics is a fair take on the status of the race in NY-23:

Hoffman Leading?