Coronavirus 2019-nCov: Political Thread

[Kung Wu]

Then where do we post the Subway girls? LOL.

Humor thread!

[shocktown]

What would happen if someone held a prayer service in the middle of a craft fair...err farmers market, should the Governator drop the hammer on that?

An aside, does anybody else think the Governator looks like a female Dennis Rader?

[WstateU]

What would happen if someone held a prayer service in the middle of a craft fair...err farmers market, should the Governator drop the hammer on that?

An aside, does anybody else think the Governator looks like a female Dennis Rader?

Maybe if I 'squint'...

[WstateU]

Maybe if I 'squint'...

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I always wear a helmet while riding my motorcycle and think it is silly not to; I absolutely despise the government legally-compelling me to do so.

I always wear a seat belt while riding in an automobile and think it is silly not to; I absolutely despise the government legally-compelling me to do so.

I know of no churches having a physical Easter service, and I think it would be foolish to do so; I absolutely despise the government telling people of faith they can't get together, but yeah it's cool to go to Costco or Cabela's.

After this is all over, we need a very strong examination of the limits of government power.

This whole thing is a progressive's wet dream. Instead of just telling people what they can think and say, they are now thrilled to add literal restrictions on free movement. Some on the right can be added to that sheetlist as well.

Speaking of "fear mongering"

[wsushox1]

----------Reposting from the other thread as, it is possible this is the best place for it---------

So what do we do now? Now that the curve is beginning to flatten in NYC, and likely will across the remainder of the country over the next three weeks....what the hell do we do next?

The virus isn't going away. It will come back. The President said yesterday that we DON'T need widespread testing or contact tracing. The federal government is pulling funds for coronavirus testing centers.

I have not heard a single coherent plan from the federal government besides "Open the economy" back up. That's just not good enough.

We have one shot to get the "reopening" right, otherwise you're looking at an economic recovery that will go from 18 months to 60+ months. On the monetary side of things, the federal reserve has already used up all of the legal authority they have within their mandate to backstop the economy and protect asset prices (for better or worse). On the fiscal side of things, the stimulus that has passed is woefully too small.

If we can't get this right, you are looking at UBI, medicare for all, among many other extreme policies within the next 12-18 months. That's the reality.

[Shockm]

Speaking of "fear mongering"

Huh?

[RoyalShock]

This was only a matter of time.

https://disrn.com/news/aoc-omar-call-for-nationalizing-our-healthcare-system-in-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic

[wsushox1]

This was only a matter of time.

https://disrn.com/news/aoc-omar-call...virus-pandemic

It's going to happen in the next 10 years, whether it happens in the next 2 years is the question.

[SB Shock]

----------Reposting from the other thread as, it is possible this is the best place for it---------

So what do we do now? Now that the curve is beginning to flatten in NYC, and likely will across the remainder of the country over the next three weeks....what the hell do we do next?

The virus isn't going away. It will come back. The President said yesterday that we DON'T need widespread testing or contact tracing. The federal government is pulling funds for coronavirus testing centers.

I have not heard a single coherent plan from the federal government besides "Open the economy" back up. That's just not good enough.

We have one shot to get the "reopening" right, otherwise you're looking at an economic recovery that will go from 18 months to 60+ months. On the monetary side of things, the federal reserve has already used up all of the legal authority they have within their mandate to backstop the economy and protect asset prices (for better or worse). On the fiscal side of things, the stimulus that has passed is woefully too small.

If we can't get this right, you are looking at UBI, medicare for all, among many other extreme policies within the next 12-18 months. That's the reality.

The model is probably South Korea. What they did we testing, contact tracing and informing the public of “hot spots” show how technology when used properly is a force multiplier. I’m afraid we are not there as a state or a country.

I don’t have any confidence that we can get this right.

[ShockerFever]

This was only a matter of time.

https://disrn.com/news/aoc-omar-call-for-nationalizing-our-healthcare-system-in-response-to-coronavirus-pandemic

I wish that fungus would just dry out already.

[wufan]

The model is probably South Korea. What they did we testing, contact tracing and informing the public of “hot spots” show how technology when used properly is a force multiplier. I’m afraid we are not there as a state or a country.

I don’t have any confidence that we can get this right.

I’m not a huge fan of the surveillance state. I will NOT ever get there as part of this state or country.

[wufan]

----------Reposting from the other thread as, it is possible this is the best place for it---------

So what do we do now? Now that the curve is beginning to flatten in NYC, and likely will across the remainder of the country over the next three weeks....what the hell do we do next?

The virus isn't going away. It will come back. The President said yesterday that we DON'T need widespread testing or contact tracing. The federal government is pulling funds for coronavirus testing centers.

I have not heard a single coherent plan from the federal government besides "Open the economy" back up. That's just not good enough.

We have one shot to get the "reopening" right, otherwise you're looking at an economic recovery that will go from 18 months to 60+ months. On the monetary side of things, the federal reserve has already used up all of the legal authority they have within their mandate to backstop the economy and protect asset prices (for better or worse). On the fiscal side of things, the stimulus that has passed is woefully too small.

If we can't get this right, you are looking at UBI, medicare for all, among many other extreme policies within the next 12-18 months. That's the reality.

Very important! I’m not sure the answer, and it’s a shame that we haven’t heard a plan from anyone yet (specifically POTUS, but seriously, no one).

I’m curious where you get the ideas about 18 month vs 60 month recovery and why is the 6 trillion(???) dollar stimulus inadequate? Why will UBI and Medicare be the only solution?

I’ve heard other people state similar things, but I haven’t seen where they’re getting these numbers.

[SB Shock]

I’m not a huge fan of the surveillance state. I will NOT ever get there as part of this state or country.

You are already being tracked extensively by Google/Apple/Cell Phone provider. They are using this data for their gain. I suspect they will figure out now how to monetize it and sell the data to the government.

[wsushox1]

Very important! I’m not sure the answer, and it’s a shame that we haven’t heard a plan from anyone yet (specifically POTUS, but seriously, no one).

I’m curious where you get the ideas about 18 month vs 60 month recovery and why is the 6 trillion(???) dollar stimulus inadequate? Why will UBI and Medicare be the only solution?

I’ve heard other people state similar things, but I haven’t seen where they’re getting these numbers.

I'll try to answer with my thinking, and where I see things. This post aims to paint a picture where both parties end up supporting UBI/M4A. The post could be lengthy and if I am too explicit, it's not cause I'm assuming you are naive but because it helps me think through it in my head. Not trying to be patronizing :)

In regard to 18-month vs. 60-month:

70% of the current american economy is consumer driven. Consumer confidence was at an all time high due to record low unemployment, rising wages at the low end of the bell curve (middle class still stagnant, however), the perceived wealth effect from people with market exposure, etc. It is unlikely that consumer confidence, and thus consumer spending will return to those levels for a significant period of time. 18-months is the minimum time frame we have seen for vaccine development. That's why I choose 18-months as the floor. It took close to 4-7 years (depending on the timeline you want to use) for unemployment to reach pre-2008 lows after the financial crisis. That is why I throw out 5-years as an extremely conservative number in the worst case scenario. It could end up being worse than that. It took roughly 8-years for consumer confidence to recover to pre-financial crisis highs.

Should be noted that these numbers aren't complete predictors of the future - but they provide historical context.

Since we are such a consumer driven economy, with unemployment likely reaching (probably already there) above 15% and entire industries sidelined through no fault of their own, you're going to see a massive devaluation of assets. Obviously you've seen that in the stock market already, and the federal reserve is trying to buy up bonds, mortgage/auto backed securities, corporate debt, and now even municipal debt as fast as they legally can to try to provide a floor to the asset devaluation. Debates about the merits of them doing that aside - the decreasing wealth effect will also play into declining consumer and business sentiment as negative feedback. The longer the "consumer" is shut down and, more importantly, the longer the consumer doesn't have enough money to pay their liabilities the more defaults, bankruptcies, and foreclosures that you're going to see at the individual level.

With the background set, the "open up the economy" issue then becomes one of two scenarios:

• Scenario 1: The government takes a pragmatic approach in re-opening the economy, implements large scale testing and *gasps* tracking (apple and google already have all your data anyways), restores confidence in people spending and participating, keeps case loads down. You're still looking at likely a minimum of 18 months for things to return to "normal".
• Scenario 2: The government opens the flood gates, no coordination on a national/state level, hot-spots continue to flare up to a degree where we once again are forced to turn off all economic activity to save hundreds of thousands of lives off and on for the next 18 months.

Obviously we are all rooting for Scenario 1. Should Scenario 2 happen: probably going to see a minimum 35-40% drop in all asset classes as the market loses all confidence. Layoffs hit industries that seemed "safe" as companies with good balance sheets become light on cash. You see massive consolidation across all industries and an elimination of competition in business. Even good businesses can't get access to credit. There's four places left in the country to buy things at: Costco, Walmart, Target, Amazon. Family farms go under because deflation hits and, even though they are still selling product, they can't afford to service their debts.

Now put yourself in the shoes of a politician in scenario 2. Are you willing to say to the tens of millions of American's, sorry you should have had a years worth of cash on hand? Sorry, you shouldn't have invested in equities. Sorry, you shouldn't have taken out that loan to start your dream business. Instead of doing all those things, you should have been planning for a once in a century global pandemic - shame on you. You're just going to have to sit there and take it. Sorry, all the homes, businesses, and institutions are now going to be bought and owned by Blackrock, Blackstone, Apollo Global, etc. The little guy, through no fault of their own, will continue to lose share in the economy.

No you're not. That's politically untenable. So what do you do? You print money. You provide money directly to the people. You start a UBI program. You're in political and economic triage - can't worry about the future at this time otherwise there won't be one. People are unable to get access to health care, hospitals and the health care industry are failing because of high unemployment and people not seeking their services. So what do you do? You nationalize the health care system.

So I agree with the President on this, you can't let the cure be worse than the problem. But it's also politically untenable to expect people to go about their business at an arbitrary date and shrug off the risk of coronavirus without confidence that a rigorous testing and surveillance system is in place while tens of thousands more people die around them.

I would argue, you can't ignore a therapeutic (UBI/M4A) because 8 months ago it seemed socialist and foreign. At one time, Social Security seemed socialist and foreign.

Again, these things sound like fantasy. and I truly, truly hope they are as the economic and personal pain leading to them will be unimaginable. But the administration and both parties need to seriously start thinking about how to ensure Scenario 1 happens because Scenario 2 probably has equal chances at this point.