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The Great Debate of 2020: Necessary or Overreaction

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  • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

    The story is a pro-mask story, but is badly written. U don’t come away saying we must wear masks. I finally traced down the actual study, the 2% is a reduction in growth rate, not transmission rate. Which is More significant.

    My company has mandated we go to mask next week because they have a covid cluster In the manufacturing area. They have threatened disciplinary measures if you don’t comply.
    Been there for a month now. If it’s not too much trouble, I would love to read the article.
    Livin the dream

    Comment


    • Originally posted by wufan View Post

      Been there for a month now. If it’s not too much trouble, I would love to read the article.
      https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pd...aff.2020.00818

      Comment


      • Thanks for the article!

        “Specifically, the daily case rate declines by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percent- age-points within 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively.”

        that’s not awesome. The study itself isn’t well designed though, so who knows.
        Livin the dream

        Comment


        • Originally posted by wufan View Post
          Thanks for the article!

          “Specifically, the daily case rate declines by 0.9, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7, and 2.0 percent- age-points within 1–5, 6–10, 11–15, and 16–20, and 21+ days after signing, respectively.”

          that’s not awesome. The study itself isn’t well designed though, so who knows.
          Yeah it is more of an anecdotal than a scientific rigorous study. There is no real data provided except for what you listed and their is probably other factors in play than just masking up.

          Now those numbers may not look impressive on the face, but when talking growth rate, they add up quickly For example take this hypothetical situation where you start with 100 people, assume your daily growth rate is 110%.

          No Intervention
          End of 5 days - 146
          End of 10 days - 236
          End of 15 days - 380
          End of 20 days - 612
          End of 30 days - 1586

          Unknown Intervention Presented in This Study
          End of 5 days - 142
          End of 10 days - 217
          End of 15 days - 328
          End of 20 days - 488
          End of 30 days - 1057

          What this illustrates to me is even small changes add up. We don't have to take draconian measure to beat Covid, but we have to do smart things and be responsible as a society.

          a. If sick (or think your sick) stay home,
          b. social distance,
          c. If you go somewhere where you might be exposed, self quarantine.
          d. If you are high risk, make some changes in your lifestyle.
          e. Protect the high risk population (retirement communities)
          f. If you work in a job that is high risk for exposure, wear the proper medical protective equipment.
          g. Proper hygiene. It is amazing how many people I still see that leave the rest room without washing their hands.
          h. Finally - test, test and test and contact trace and isolate.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

            Yeah it is more of an anecdotal than a scientific rigorous study. There is no real data provided except for what you listed and their is probably other factors in play than just masking up.

            Now those numbers may not look impressive on the face, but when talking growth rate, they add up quickly For example take this hypothetical situation where you start with 100 people, assume your daily growth rate is 110%.

            No Intervention
            End of 5 days - 146
            End of 10 days - 236
            End of 15 days - 380
            End of 20 days - 612
            End of 30 days - 1586

            Unknown Intervention Presented in This Study
            End of 5 days - 142
            End of 10 days - 217
            End of 15 days - 328
            End of 20 days - 488
            End of 30 days - 1057

            What this illustrates to me is even small changes add up. We don't have to take draconian measure to beat Covid, but we have to do smart things and be responsible as a society.

            a. If sick (or think your sick) stay home,
            b. social distance,
            c. If you go somewhere where you might be exposed, self quarantine.
            d. If you are high risk, make some changes in your lifestyle.
            e. Protect the high risk population (retirement communities)
            f. If you work in a job that is high risk for exposure, wear the proper medical protective equipment.
            g. Proper hygiene. It is amazing how many people I still see that leave the rest room without washing their hands.
            h. Finally - test, test and test and contact trace and isolate.
            The infections went from ~ 600k to ~1.8m over their timeframe, so your estimates are off there. They also captured NY during their deceleration which has to bias the study.
            Livin the dream

            Comment


            • Originally posted by wufan View Post

              The infections went from ~ 600k to ~1.8m over their timeframe, so your estimates are off there. They also captured NY during their deceleration which has to bias the study.
              Mine was not a estimate of anything that has happened, it was just a hypothetical scenario to show how a small % change to the growth rate over time has a significant affect. So if a real scientific study of mask would show that 2% reduction in growth rate - that would be significant.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by revenge_of_shocka_khan View Post

                If you worked as hard at thinking with a critical mind as you do posting propaganda, I might conclude you were actually pretty smart. Since you can't, I might say you are somewhat creative but basically ignorant.

                Show me, other when where he's said it (and other than CNS news or ONN) where reputable health experts agree with this. Note I know you're going to come up with some crank who supports your position, I'm actually asking you to post something that would be independent and creditable.
                The gold standard (March 16 2020)?

                https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

                What, you thought I was gonna' refer to these 2 old self-righteous farts:

                fear.jpg

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View Post

                  The gold standard (March 16 2020)?

                  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

                  What, you thought I was gonna' refer to these 2 old self-righteous farts:

                  fear.jpg
                  So I'm not seeing anything in this that connects with Trump saving a million lives. In fact, it is totally disassociated with your beliefs and comments. Here are some interesting tidbits:
                  • We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
                  I read that as meaining we may need to shut down multiple times if we don't employ other measures over and above social distancing.
                  • We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. (does this mean to shut down the economy again? I certainly don't support that, do you?
                  So is this your point?
                  • Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
                  Seems like you are advocating taking no action at all if the economy needs to be shut down again? The reason I'm pro-mask is that I think we ought to do as much as we can SHORT of closing the economy down again. That's not an option.

                  You're the best advertisement for Joe Biden I believe I've said. Let's post gif's of Trump flipping everyone off, let's not worry about a few old people dying (you and Dan Patrick). You DO understand that Trump's last best chance of re-election is dependent upon expanding his base AND that he seems to be losing the elderly vote, which went very heavy for him in 2016.

                  So he has lost the vote of suburban women (and probably men) and the elderly. That's a real winning proposition there.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by revenge_of_shocka_khan View Post

                    So I'm not seeing anything in this that connects with Trump saving a million lives. In fact, it is totally disassociated with your beliefs and comments. Here are some interesting tidbits:
                    • We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
                    I read that as meaining we may need to shut down multiple times if we don't employ other measures over and above social distancing.
                    • We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. (does this mean to shut down the economy again? I certainly don't support that, do you?
                    So is this your point?
                    • Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.
                    Seems like you are advocating taking no action at all if the economy needs to be shut down again? The reason I'm pro-mask is that I think we ought to do as much as we can SHORT of closing the economy down again. That's not an option.

                    You're the best advertisement for Joe Biden I believe I've said. Let's post gif's of Trump flipping everyone off, let's not worry about a few old people dying (you and Dan Patrick). You DO understand that Trump's last best chance of re-election is dependent upon expanding his base AND that he seems to be losing the elderly vote, which went very heavy for him in 2016.

                    So he has lost the vote of suburban women (and probably men) and the elderly. That's a real winning proposition there.
                    That old fart won't get on a debate stage. What are you, a g***amn Snowflake or something? #Resist, or just plain stupid?

                    Right now this country is on pace for the 100-200 thousand deaths that fauci predicted, if protective measures were adhered to. You need that one too? Yes, the elderly are the most vulnerable, obviously, but the snowflakes in New York and New Jersey didn't get the message, and as a matter fact, unsurprisingly, blamed your President. You're stupid enough to do the same, but, as Mark Twain said: "No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot."

                    But, I take nothing you share with any credence. You think a traitor like vindman is a national hero, and believe cnn and msnbc are the media outlets of choice for unbiased truth. Ignorant, indeed. Don't babble so much Creep.



                    anchors aweigh.jpg

                    #benicetochina
                    Last edited by ShockingButTrue; 1 week ago.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View Post

                      That old fart won't get on a debate stage. What are you, a g***amn Snowflake or something? #Resist, or just plain stupid?

                      Right now this country is on pace for the 100-200 thousand deaths that fauci predicted, if protective measures were adhered to. You need that one too? Yes, the elderly are the most vulnerable, obviously, but the snowflakes in New York and New Jersey didn't get the message, and as a matter fact, unsurprisingly, blamed your President. You're stupid enough to do the same, but, as Mark Twain said: "No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot."

                      But, I take nothing you share with any credence. You think a traitor like vindman is a national hero, and believe cnn and msnbc are the media outlets of choice for unbiased truth. Ignorant, indeed.[SIZE=16px] Don't babble creep

                      I must have triggered you.

                      I have to use critical thinking skills every day, I'm guessing your triggering is because I caught you trying to slip one by me.

                      And sorry, I dont believe in participation certificates. I work for my stuff and so should you. That includes real accomplishments. As a conservative, you should understand and appreciate that.

                      By the way, please get back on your meds, you obviously have ADD, the thread is about Covid, not impeachment . Quit cknflating.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by revenge_of_shocka_khan View Post


                        I must have triggered you.

                        I have to use critical thinking skills every day, I'm guessing your triggering is because I caught you trying to slip one by me.

                        And sorry, I dont believe in participation certificates. I work for my stuff and so should you. That includes real accomplishments. As a conservative, you should understand and appreciate that.

                        By the way, please get back on your meds, you obviously have ADD, the thread is about Covid, not impeachment . Quit cknflating.

                        Just enjoying a good joust, at your request...

                        You questioned my integrity and I showed you the proof Snowflake. Your President saved a million lives. What next, you want proof of fauci claiming if everything is done right deaths can be kept at 100-200 thousand? It's out there. And it wasn't last week he said it. Keep trying though...

                        Whatever happened to biden's daily cv19 briefing's he proposed to do, to better inform the -ahem- people? It's out there too. You brought him up, not me Snowflake. You think he'll have the courage to debate the President concerning the handling of the pandemic? Please don't lie. Will he lead by science? Accuse Trump of downplaying it? Delegate people to wash their hands for 20 seconds? Call your President a xenophobe? Claim the President's helping russian's? So far all he's done is plagiarized everything your President has done for the last 3 months concerning the virus, but of course he has a history of that doesn't he? Only the uninformed, willfully ignorant, #resistor's and just plain 'ol card carryin' trannies who insist on using the men's room would disagree. Which are you (I have a guess)?

                        Remount Snowflake.




                        #Anchorsaweigh

                        Comment


                        • If Trump is to be re-elected, there are several things that need to happen.

                          1) Everybody wears a mask
                          2) Bars are shut down. Restaurants open at 50% capacity.
                          3) Everyone follows social distancing wherever possible.
                          4) Raise testing by a factor of 5
                          4) Take people on unemployment and turn them into contact tracers.
                          5) Quarantine every positive and everybody who's been in contact with a positive.

                          Let's assume that masks don't work, but some people believe they do. At least it looks like there's an effort being made.

                          The way things are going now, schools are making contingency plans for how to open in August. If schools open with significant attendance limitations or don't open, Trump has virtually no chance in November.

                          I understand we're testing more, so we're finding more. We've also raised the positive percent from 1% to 4% in Sedgwick County. Some areas in the nation are finding positive testing rates in the teens.. Raising the positive rate from 1 to 4% may ndicate that we had the higher percentage all along, but didn't know it because of low testing rates. Either that or the virus is exploding in our communities now.

                          BTW, S. Korea may have been included in the graphic because S. Korea had their first confirmed case the same day that the USA had their first confirmed case. It was possible to do better.
                          The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
                          We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Aargh View Post
                            If Trump is to be re-elected, there are several things that need to happen.

                            1) Everybody wears a mask
                            2) Bars are shut down. Restaurants open at 50% capacity.
                            3) Everyone follows social distancing wherever possible.
                            4) Raise testing by a factor of 5
                            4) Take people on unemployment and turn them into contact tracers.
                            5) Quarantine every positive and everybody who's been in contact with a positive.

                            Let's assume that masks don't work, but some people believe they do. At least it looks like there's an effort being made.

                            The way things are going now, schools are making contingency plans for how to open in August. If schools open with significant attendance limitations or don't open, Trump has virtually no chance in November.

                            I understand we're testing more, so we're finding more. We've also raised the positive percent from 1% to 4% in Sedgwick County. Some areas in the nation are finding positive testing rates in the teens.. Raising the positive rate from 1 to 4% may ndicate that we had the higher percentage all along, but didn't know it because of low testing rates. Either that or the virus is exploding in our communities now.

                            BTW, S. Korea may have been included in the graphic because S. Korea had their first confirmed case the same day that the USA had their first confirmed case. It was possible to do better.
                            South Korea has 50 million people. They used draconian measures to stop the spread that are beyond what anyone on this board would accept. Apples and oranges.

                            As for your Trump re-election campaign? I think that would be a big fail.
                            Livin the dream

                            Comment


                            • If Biden gets elected, the health crisis will be over by noon of the following day.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by pinstripers View Post
                                If Biden gets elected, the health crisis will be over by noon of the following day.
                                Biden voter?

                                Comment

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