Coronavirus 2019-nCov: Political Thread

[pie n eye]

Sweden didn’t close schools. Wasn’t KungWu posting about how their strategy has been equally effective as countries that did close schools?

[Kung Wu]

I understand that. I would prefer he say it instead playing the rhetorical question game.

It wasn't a rhetorical question, it's one that the answer to your question hinges on, potentially.

[Kung Wu]

Sweden didn’t close schools. Wasn’t KungWu posting about how their strategy has been equally effective as countries that did close schools?

If they didn't close schools then their children were part of the first wave. Since a large swath of our children weren't part of the first wave, then if we reopen schools and increase contact them, wouldn't it potentially create a "second" wave of a large previously unexposed subset of the population? If the second wave only affects "healthy" people, it's not really a bad thing as long because it doesn't result in a bunch of deaths or long-term illnesses, is it? These are questions I struggle with.

[RoyalShock]

If they didn't close schools then their children were part of the first wave. Since a large swath of our children weren't part of the first wave, then if we reopen schools and increase contact them, wouldn't it potentially create a "second" wave of a large previously unexposed subset of the population? If the second wave only affects "healthy" people, it's not really a bad thing as long because it doesn't result in a bunch of deaths or long-term illnesses, is it? These are questions I struggle with.

it's a legitimate question. A big part of the reason colds, flu and stomach bugs are so common during the winter is kids bringing them home from school.

[pie n eye]

If they didn't close schools then their children were part of the first wave. Since a large swath of our children weren't part of the first wave, then if we reopen schools and increase contact them, wouldn't it potentially create a "second" wave of a large previously unexposed subset of the population? If the second wave only affects "healthy" people, it's not really a bad thing as long because it doesn't result in a bunch of deaths or long-term illnesses, is it? These are questions I struggle with.

That all makes sense to me.

I guess I should revise my initial statement to say that with the additional information and prep time we have we should be well equipped to avoid a second wave of that is worse than the first in terms of death. Although, as you guys have said, it’s not a sure thing and there are concerns like schools and other places reopening. Possibly there will be more small peaks as we identify and contain new outbreaks.

I see a lot of media point to the second wave of the Spanish Flu and I think there are many reasons why that is unlikely (circumstances of soldiers returning from WW1, scientific/technological advancements, improved communication, etc).

[Shockm]

Mississippi, one of the first states to reopen, has had a spike in confirmed cases and deaths: https://www.forbes.com/sites/carliep.../#3a416a922fae.

The true struggle is to try to link reopening to the increase in cases and spikes. Perhaps the increase had nothing to do with reopening - which is a possibility - or perhaps they were a direct link to reopening - another possibility.

As more states reopen and more data comes through, we will have a better idea. But one state's data is far too noisy to make real generalizations on.

I saw Gov. Reeves interviewed over the weekend and he said that it was only a one or two day short spike. It sounded like they were doing more testing (just like Kansas) now and he didn't think it was really a true spike. Our governor has said that our numbers were going up in Kansas due to more testing but hospital cases were going down. It sounded like that may have been what was happening to Mississippi according to the Governor. However, he was putting off reopening for a short time to make sure. I think that he stated that he hadn't actually reopened yet.

[SHOCKvalue]

I saw Gov. Reeves interviewed over the weekend and he said that it was only a one or two day short spike. It sounded like they were doing more testing (just like Kansas) now and he didn't think it was really a true spike. Our governor has said that our numbers were going up in Kansas due to more testing but hospital cases were going down. It sounded like that may have been what was happening to Mississippi according to the Governor. However, he was putting off reopening for a short time to make sure. I think that he stated that he hadn't actually reopened yet.

The meat and potatoes utility of the current stats is hospitalizations and deaths. Maybe hospitalizations over deaths even. Testing volume/availability has been such a relative joke that it is a nearly useless stat. Deaths has some warts of its own, but obviously can't just throw the baby out with the bath water.

[Shockm]

The meat and potatoes utility of the current stats is hospitalizations and deaths. Maybe hospitalizations over deaths even. Testing volume/availability has been such a relative joke that it is a nearly useless stat. Deaths has some warts of its own, but obviously can't just throw the baby out with the bath water.

Throw out your last sentence and I think you are right. Hospitilizations are a better stat to watch. Too many people that have mild cases.

[C0|dB|00ded]

The meat and potatoes utility of the current stats is hospitalizations and deaths. Maybe hospitalizations over deaths even. Testing volume/availability has been such a relative joke that it is a nearly useless stat. Deaths has some warts of its own, but obviously can't just throw the baby out with the bath water.

The stat I've kept my eye on for a while is the "serious/critical" column on the worldometers site. 80-90% of those get processed through the morgue. We hit 20k the other day which was quite dismaying. We're back down to 16k and have added another 5k in deaths. What a coincidence. You may as well call it the pending death column. I would think eventually it will really start to balloon (with deaths fairly coming to a halt) IF we find a robust therapy and patients no longer being semi-automatically relegated to the Jesus Bus.


T


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[wufan]

The stat I've kept my eye on for a while is the "serious/critical" column on the worldometers site. 80-90% of those get processed through the morgue. We hit 20k the other day which was quite dismaying. We're back down to 16k and have added another 5k in deaths. What a coincidence. You may as well call it the pending death column. I would think eventually it will really start to balloon (with deaths fairly coming to a halt) IF we find a robust therapy and patients no longer being semi-automatically relegated to the Jesus Bus.


T


...

80% of those on ventilators aren’t making, or at least weren’t making it early on. I think they are doing better now (but still bad). A good percentage of serious/critical patients don’t end up on ventilators at all.

[WstateU]

I seldom agree with Bill Maher, but he pretty much nails it here (warning, strong language)...

[pie n eye]

I seldom agree with Bill Maher, but he pretty much nails it here (warning, strong language)...

I agree there would be many people who would not stop eating hot pockets if they were the cause of a pandemic.

For one, they wouldn’t believe the science. Then when the government banned them people would say it’s a deep state conspiracy between CNN and the Democrats and another example of big government trying to control their lives. People would march on their state capitals carrying three or four guns dressed in bullet proof vests.

Scientists didn’t name it the China Virus. They named it SARS-CoV-2. Spanish flu didn’t start in Spain. Middle East is a region not a country. I really don’t care what people call it and I think there are good reasons to be very concerned about China but Bill Maher is pulling a Rachel Madow here and willfully bending or ignoring facts in service of taking shots at his bogeyman, PC culture.

[ShockerFever]

So what do we make of this?

[pie n eye]

So what do we make of this?

I would just recommend doing some google research on the contents of this video and the claims of this person. Plenty of information out there and more will follow as it gets shared around.

[WstateU]

So what do we make of this?

I don't believe everything I see or read, but this interview is enlightening and eye opening.